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FX Blog- TTN - U.S. Market UpdateU.S. Market Update
Dow +87 S&P +11.25 NASDAQ +21.05
- U.S. equity markets have seen a bit of a relief rally as money comes out of Treasuries. Overseas markets saw gains in the wake of the ABK, C, and CSCO headlines that brought buyers into the market late in yesterday''s NY session. Decent earnings and guidance reports from retailers BIG +24% SKS +3% and BJ +10% helped equity futures shake off the first negative reading ever for the monthly ADP jobs report. Equity markets pushed out to new highs and bonds ticked to new lows after Feb non-manufacturing ISM data beat expectations but still signaled contraction. The 10-year note future is down nearly half a point yielding 3.65%. April fed fund futures have seen the odds of cuts of 75bp slip back towards 50% from 80% yesterday. Indices have since pulled back from their best levels as commodities ran to new session highs across the board following weekly oil inventory data. Crude +3% at 102.58, Gasoline +1.4%, Heating Oil +3.6%, Apr Gold +2% at $986, Copper +3% at $3.93, and Silver +3.5%. This latest move higher in commodities coincided with the Euro testing all-time highs at 1.5275.
- USD saw its initial gains achieved over the last 48 hours against the Euro, Cable and Swiss erode as the NY morning progressed and EUR/USD made new all-time highs at 1.5275. EUR/USD had continued to see steady alleged Asian offers at the 1.5440 area before giving way ahead of the European close. The USD did manage to regain a brief moment of composure following the Feb ISM non-manufacturing data beat consensus expectations with a 49.3 reading. However, The ISM does remain below the 50 level suggesting contraction in this sector. It was the first back-to-back reading of this data since the Dec''01 and Jan ''02 time period. Dealers are noting that the ECB staff inflation projections to be released on Thursday are seen as the main focus for any future ECB rate decisions. The carry-related currency pairs were volatile throughout the session. Both JPY and CHF softened as equity markets regained composure. USD/JPY tested above the 104 handle as dealers note medium term players covered shorts ahead of the alleged option barrier at 102.50. EUR/JPY is firmer by over 100 pips at 158.50. The 105 area will remain key resistance for the USD as the Friday payroll data approaches. CAD and AUD firmed as commodity prices rose. USD/CAD was unable to sustain recent breaks above the 0.9920 level. Cash gold continues to probe the $1, 000 level.
In fixed-income dealers are noting that the covered bond market is essentially closed. As no market makers seem to be making any markets. March Bund -44 ticks at 117.30; Mar Gilts futures -37 ticks at 110. 54Euro-Stoxx 50 up 2% at 3,687; FTSE 100 up 1.45 at 5,842; CAC-40 index +1. 8% at 4,759 and DAX up 2.2% at 6,687
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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