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Wednesday October 20, 2004 - 17:50:21 GMT

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Forex Commentary by Global Forex Trading

Daily Forex Market Commentary for Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - by Cornelius Luca, currencies analyst, Global Forex Trading

The dollar failed to hold onto its early gains on Tuesday and then came under selling pressure across the board. It managed to fend off a sharp slide against the European currencies but dollar/yen melted to a three-month low as several waves of stop-loss orders were triggered. The dollar should remain under selling pressure on Wednesday, but expect a choppy decline.

Euro/dollar saw the expected decline only in trading on Tuesday but it then rallied sharply to close at its highest levels in months. This strength should persist today as well Ė provided that it can dislodge its seven-month high at 1.2532.

If successful, euro/dollar should challenge the resistance seen in the nearby 1.2560 area. A break higher would quickly accelerate this rally and the pair would challenge the further resistance at 1.2634.

Immediate support comes at 1.2990 and a break lower would call for a test to the support between 1.2440 and 1.2425. A break below this area would signal a more aggressive decline to the next area between 1.2340 and 1.2330.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


Dollar/yenís half-baked recovery on Tuesday didnít help it much and the pair was sold off aggressively amid stop loss orders to fall to a three-month low of 108.24. This weakness should continue today, but the pace of the decline should decelerate.

The sell-off on Tuesday picked up speed after the break of the 50-pip pivot at 109.15, and this promptly reached its downside target of 108.65. Below 108.24, the pair has a minor support at 108.08 and a key level at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Above 108.80, dollar/yen has resistance at 109.15 and then at 109.65. The latter level should easily cordon off any recovery today. Distant resistance looms between 110.00 and at 110.20. Further resistance comes in the area between 110.35 and 110.55.

Oscillators are heading lower.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish

Sterling/dollar continued its yoyo-like price action and made a sharp recovery from an overnight low of 1.7943. The pair should try to pad its gains on Wednesday, but it remains to be seen whether itís got what it takes.

The pair must first break above the resistance at 1.8068 and a break higher would confirm that the channel rising since early October remains in good shape. The pair would then test 1.8095 and if it can find its way higher, it will then test the tough resistance at 1.8120 ahead of the pivotal peak at 1.8160.

Immediate support comes in the 1.8000 area. A break lower would face good support between 1.7943 and 1.7930. If this area succumbs to pressure, then look for an acceleration of the decline to the area between 1.7905 and 1.7890. Distant support remains at 1.7840.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss failed to hold on to its early gains and gave them all back later on Tuesday. The pair remains under selling pressure and is trading close to its three-month low of 1.2267.

If the sell-off continues, look for an acceleration of the slide toward the area between 1.2230 and 1.2245. Further support is at 1.2204. Distant support levels are seen at 1.2182 and at 1.2138.

Any recovery will face immediate resistance at 1.2320 and a move higher would call for a test at 1.2376. An unlikely break above this level would signal a recovery to 1.2428. Distant resistance remains between 1.2470 and1.2500.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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