Thursday March 6, 2008 - 12:13:07 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 6-Mar-2008....1210 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
GBP-USD @ 1.9950/55...BOE Meeting Today
R: 1.9970-80 / 2.0036 / 2.0126
S: 1.9930 / 1.9890 / 1.9841
GBP-USD has been relatively firm during the day ahead of the important BOE decision. The expectation is that rates would be kept on hold at 5.25%. The pair is currently trading just below its important Resistance of 1.9970-80 and a sustained move above that is required to see a bigger rally. Immediately above 1.9970-80, the Resistance would come in at 2.0036, the statistically projected Max High for the day. The 200-MA on the Daily is at 2.0126.
On the downside the Support is at 1.9930 and then at 1.9890. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 1.9841. We donâ€™t have any trades currently, ahead of the BOE meeting.
See UK Interest Rate and GBP Libor chart at
USD-CHF @ 1.0316/20...Bearishness Persists
R: 1.0350 / 1.0380 / 1.0426
S: 1.0290-80 / 1.0261
USD-CHF has had a sharp fall during the day to a low of 1.0279, with line with the bearish trend, which the pair has been under for a considerable period of time. The pair has bounced a bit since the low of 1.0279, however it may fall once again. Today the immediate Support is at 1.0290-80 and then at 1.0261, statistically projected Max Low for the day.
On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0350 and then at 1.0380. The statistically projected Max High for the day is at 1.0426. The pair is bearish biased and further fall is likely later on in the day.
AUD-USD @ 0.9350/54...Resistance at 0.9415
R: 0.9370-75 / 0.9415
S: 0.9300 / 0.9277
AUD-USD has been moderately firm so far in the day and the pair could trade above 0.9300 with a near-term bullish bias. Having said that, the intra-day Resistance is at 0.9370-75, which has been already tested once. Above that the Resistance would come in at 0.9415, the statistically projected Max High for the day.
On the downside the Support would come in at 0.9300 and 0.9277, statistically projected Max Low for the day. We donâ€™t have any trades currently, however the pair is likely to be bullish while it is above 0.9250.
The BIGGER PICTURE, on the other hand, is not so bullish. Looking at the Weekly charts, there is Resistance near 0.9400 on the Weekly Close chart on a line joining the Highs Feb-04 and Nov-07 Highs and another line joining the Nov-04 and Nov-07 Highs. On the Weekly Candles, the lines joining the peaks of the same months (given above), provide Resistance between 0.9530-70. THAT, admittedly, is still 200 points higher than current levels.
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