Friday March 7, 2008 - 04:51:34 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for GBPUSD
||Watch resistance areas at 2.0138, 2.0185 and 2.0232-48 while back below 2.0015 sees losses|
||When the break came there was one last effort to hold below 1.9983 but once broken we saw steady follow-through to just above the 2.0128 resistance. There is a minor bearish divergence and there is a valid target at the 2.0128-38 high so we should be cautious. Any break above yesterdayâ€™s 2.0138 high should extend gains to 2.0185 but take there also. Only above sees the 2.0232-48 resistance which should cap. |
||Price has remained stubbornly high but has not, as yet, confirmed gains. A break above 1.9971-06 would imply gains to 2.0128 and 2.0188 at least with 2.0221-48 also quite strong. (6th March)|
||Having seen the 1.9971 resistance crack we have to be a little more cautious about expecting downside progress. However, do note that the 2.0138 area and also 2.0185 are valid upside projections and could cause a correction lower at least. However, only below 2.0081 would trigger a small correction lower to the 2.0000-27 area. This could hold. Only breach would suggest we have seen a larger peak. Next support is at 1.9892-1.9930. |
||While of course disappointed that the 1.9971 resistance didnâ€™t hold I still view this as a pullback within a larger decline. There is resistance around 2.0248, 2.0404 and stronger at 2.0463. (7th March)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
With the break above 1.9971-83 we have to consider an alternative structure. It may mean that the initial 1.9957 high was a Wave A followed by a Wave B to 1.9361.
There is a 138.2% projection in Wave C at 2.0221 and just above at 2.0248 represents a 50% retracement of the 2.1160 â€“ 1.9335 decline.
Keep this in mind. A 58.6% retracement lies at 2.0404 and a 61.8% at 2.0463.A 166.7% projection in Wave C is at 2.0398 while a 176.4% projection is at 2.0458. These are both areas that could hold.
However, also note that a 76.4% projection in Wave v lies at 2.0138 so we have to proceed with careâ€¦
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