Monday March 10, 2008 - 05:13:27 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCAD
||A little mixed but prefer a sideways consolidation between 0.9775 & 0.9933|
||Losses developed as preferred but stalled at 0.9755. This does seem to suggest potential for further sideways ranging. I feel there is still risk of seeing 0.9933 but around this level we should see a peak. Thus a stronger bullish stance would require a break above 0.9940 which would then follow-through to the 0.9976 high with breach extending gains to 1.0022 at least. Take care as this could stall the gains. Next resistance is then found at 1.0065-70 and 1.0124. |
||I still prefer the downside has greater potential and only back above 0.9938-77 would see extension back to 1.0000 and probably further with 1.0043-83 and 1.0121 implied. (4th March)|
||With the bounce from 0.9755 it does suggest we are possibly seeing a sideways range develop. The initial move does seem to risk seeing the 0.9933 first but from there look for a move back to around 0.9975-80. This does look as if it could hold. Thus any stronger bearish stance will need a clean break of 0.9755-75 and if seen would prompt stronger losses to the 0.9709 low which could hold again on first test. Next support is at 0.9675 and 0.9652. |
||The downside is less certain now but having seen the 0.9977 resistance hold there is still chance that a break below 0.9865 would imply a move down to 0.9709 initially and later to the 0.9604-52 area. (5th March)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The pullback has been deeper than expected for a Wave iv but the actual position of Wave ii is a bit undecided. Thus I donâ€™t really want to get too bullish until the 50% retracement of the 1.0166-0.9709 decline which rests at 0.9938 and the 58.6% at 0.9977. If this area caps then the next move should be lower to 0.9600-30 at least.
If the 0.9977 are breaks then we have to concede that the 0.9709 low was the end of Wave (c) and thus we should expect the recovery to make its way back to the area of the Wave (b) high at 1.0197.
It now looks like we are seeing Wave iv develop in a triangle and this could keep a 0.9775-0.9933 range before turning lower to the 0.9600-30 area at least.
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