Thursday October 21, 2004 - 01:39:23 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 21st October 2004 Price: 108.20
108.40 ... 108.65 ... 108.85 ... 109.00
107.80 ... 107.65 ... 107.45 ... 107.00
Slightly mixed but overall still looking for a decline to the 107.45-65 area
Price held below 108.70 but failed to cleanly break lower. We see two possible scenarios which both imply losses but which, at the most should imply a peak around 108.65 again. Thus only above 108.65-85 would imply the immediate downside is complete and would trigger gains back to 109.00 at least and probably through to 109.60 again.
Fairly tight range trading seen yesterday but which held below 108.70. We continue to see a decline to the 107.45-65 area but how this develops is a little uncertain. A direct loss of 108.10 would provoke immediate loss to 107.80 at least and probably down to the target area. Any earlier rally should be held by 108.65-85 again followed by the loss to target. From this lower area we expect a pullback at the very least.
Elliott Wave Comments:
October 18th 2004
The peak at 110.20 finally completed Wave -iv- of the Wave (c) decline and we now have targets from the Wave (a) lower to 109.78 and internally from 111.45 which both target the 108.35 level as the completion of the move lower. This would then appear to complete Wave C of a larger daily triangle.
October 20th 2004
Given the break below 108.35 we feel there is a risk of follow-through to the lower target at 107.60 which represents a Wave -c- target of 138.2% of Wave -a- and also a triangle Wave (C) projection of 61.8%.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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