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FX Blog- TTN European Market UpdateEuropean Market Update: UK PPI Data Mixed in February
Â· *** ECONOMIC DATA ***
Â· GE Jan Trade Balance: â‚¬17.1B v â‚¬15.5Be || Prior revised from â‚¬10.8B to â‚¬10.7B
Â· GE Jan Current Account: â‚¬15.0B v â‚¬13.0Be || Prior revised from â‚¬15.9B to â‚¬16. 8B
Â· GE Jan Imports: 4.2% v 0.8% || Prior revised from 5.3% to 5. 4%
Â· GE Jan Exports: 3.8% v 1.0%e || Prior revised from -1.2% to -1. 3%
Â· FR Jan Industrial Production: M/M 0.5% v 0.0%e || Prior revised from 0.7% to 0.6% |||| Y/Y 2.7% v 2.2%e
Â· FR Jan Manufacturing Production: M/M 1.2% v 0.2%e || Y/Y 3.1% v 1.7%e || Prior revised from 0.8% to 0.7%
Â· FR Jan Trade Balance: -â‚¬3.4B v -â‚¬4.0Be || Prior revised from -â‚¬4.3B to -â‚¬4.0B
Â· SW Jan Industrial Production: M/M 0.2% v 0. 4%e || Prior revised from 0.1% to 0.2% |||| Y/Y 3.8% v 3.9%e || Prior revised from 1.2% to 1.5%
Â· SW Jan Industrial Orders: M/M -8.4% v 7. 4% prior || Prior revised from 7.4% to 7.7% |||| Y/Y -0.7% v -1.3% prior || Prior revised from -1.3% to -1.1%
Â· IT Jan Industrial Production: M/M 1.3% v 0.6%e || Prior revised from -0.5% to 0.0% |||| Y/Y 0.5% v -2.7%e || Y/Y nsa 0.5% v -1.2%e
Â· NO Feb Producer Prices: M/M 1.3% v 1.1%e || Y/Y 20.2% v 19.9%e
Â· NO Feb CPI: M/M 0.5% v 0.5%e || Y/Y 3.7% v 3. 7%e
Â· NO Feb CPI Underlying: M/M 1.0% v 0.6%e || Y/Y 2.2% v 1. 9%e
Â· UK Feb PPI Input: M/M 1.7% v 1.6%e || Y/Y 19.4% v 18.3%e || Prior revised from 19.1% to 18.9%
Â· UK Feb PPI Output: M/M 0.3% v 0. 6% || Y/Y 5.7% v 6.0%
Â· UK Feb PPI Output Core: M/M 0.2% v 0.4%e || Prior revised from 0.8% to 0.9% |||| Y/Y 3.0% v 3.2%e || Prior revised from 3.1% to 3.2%
Â· UK Jan Industrial Production: M/M -0.1% v 0.1%e || Prior revised from -0.1% to 0.0% |||| Y/Y 0.4% v 0.5%e || Prior revised from 0.6% to 0.9%
Â· UK Jan Manufacturing Production: M/M 0.4% v 0. 1%e || Y/Y 0.6% v 0.1%e || Prior revised from 0.0% to 0.1%
Â· EU Mar Sentix Investor Confidence: 0.4 v 2.7e
Â· *** SPEAKERS COMMENTS ***
Â· UK Chancellor Darling agreed to a deal which lowers the burden of US citizens working in the UK under his new tax proposal || The deal will allow various American''s working in Britain to offset the annual Â£30K tax on overseas earnings against their US tax liabilities [wires citing sources]
Â· UK mortgage approvals fell by 3.5% to 71.4K in Feb from 74K in January [Connells Survey & Valuation Mortgage Approvals Tracker]
Â· *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Â· The European fixed income futures are trading higher in the session, outperforming the gilts by a long shot. Fixed income futures are trading higher on the back of a lower equity opening, and another widening in the iTraxx crossover index. There was a widening in swap spreads overnight as uncertainty continues to keep market participants on edge. The night was filled with economic data, however none of the data turned out to be market moving.
Â· Equities opened lower across the board on continuing concerns about the state of the US economy and the implications of a possible recession on economies abroad. The basic resources and industrial goods & services sectors are the biggest lagers in Europe today, while the personal & household goods sector is outperforming. According to Swiss newspaper Sonntag, UBS is likely to write down another CHF10B in sub-prime related losses this year. In the UK Bovis homes reported unfavorable results and provided a choppy outlook for 2008 sending shares down by over 7% at the open. Elsewhere Carlyle Capital Corporation announced that the Company, with the assistance of The Carlyle Group, is continuing to meet with its lenders to discuss the current situation and is evaluating all available options to maximize value for all interested parties. The Company is also continuing to work with the various regulatory agencies to keep them informed of recent events. According to a Deutsche Bank analyst report released overnight, the US entered a recession during the first quarter and equity markets are now about two-thirds of the way through average declines for the cycle.Looking ahead to the US pre-market, earnings results are expected from Blackstone Group, along with Expressjet Holdings, and LMI Aerospace.
Â· On the commodity front crude oil futures are trading lower in the session, but still remain within range of the $105-handle. OPEC President Khelil said overnight that oil prices are expected to remain high until the end of the year. Elsewhere spot gold continues to trade near the $975-handle, but is trending lower at the moment. Spot silver, and front month copper are also trending lower at this time.
Â· In currencies the USD maintained a relatively quiet tone overnight as it consolidated from Friday''s choppy session. Overall sentiment for the USD remained soft, but the dollar is off its record lows against the Euro and CHF seen in the aftermath of a weak US payroll report last Friday. Commodity prices continue to weigh down on USD sentiment as gold and oil remain at elevated levels. The EUR/USD has held below the 1.54-level throughout most of the European morning. The USD/CHF is hovering around the 1.02-area. There was word overnight that the UAE is possibly setting up a USD peg task force as the Fed may cut rates at its March FOMC. Risk aversion dominated trading in the JPY as credit concerns continue to weigh on carry-related pairs. The USD/JPY is at the 102-handle, while the EUR/JPY is off 70 pips in 156.70-area
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