Monday March 10, 2008 - 12:36:53 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 10-Mar-2008....1230 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by
Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
GBP-USD @ 2.0195/99...Bullish Biased
R: 2.0215-20 / 2.0250 / 2.0278
S: 2.0130 / 2.0090 / 2.0060
GBP-USD had a nice rally last week and is currently trading above its 200-Day MA of 2.0130, which would now become a Support this week. Below that the Support would come in at 2.0000-1.9970, the â€śbreakout levelâ€ť which was crossed last week. This week the pair could rally towards 2.0300 or even 2.0400-0455, the statistically projected Max High for the week. Dips are likely to see buyers. The bias for the pair is bullish while it holds above 1.9970 on a sustained basis.
Today the Support is at 2.0130 and then at 2.0090. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 2.0066. On the upside the Resistance is at 2.0215-20 and then at 2.0250. The statistically projected Max High for the day is at 2.0278. The bias for the pair is bullish and dips could be used to buy.
UK Trade Balance is out tomorrow. See chart at
Limit Buy Order:
Buy GBP 10K at 2.0073, SL 1.9970, TP Open
USD-CHF @ 1.0221/25...Stays Bearish
R: 1.0250 / 1.0290
S: 1.0190 / 1.0123
USD-CHF closed with sharp losses again last week and dipped to a record low of 1.0134. It has fallen now for last four consecutive weeks and is quite oversold, and caution on Short positions would be required. That said, the pair continues to be in a downtrend. The immediate Support is on a trendline at 1.0100 which is shown in the first chart at
Below that the pair would target parity at 1.0000. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0450, which needs to be broken to question the scope for further downside. The important event for the week would be SNB meeting on Thursday.
Today the immediate Support is at 1.0190 and the statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 1.0123. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0250 and then at 1.0290. The statistically projected Max High for the day is at 1.0323.
SNB meets on Thursday. See SNB Libor chart at
AUD-USD @ 0.9255/59...Support at 0.9220-15
R: 0.9315 / 0.9362-63
S: 0.9260 / 0.9220-14
AUD-USD ran into selling near its highs on 4 out of 5 days last week and it is currently ranged within 0.9220 and 0.9400, which was also seen in the last part last week. This range is likely to stay in place for the first part of this week, before a directional move emerges. An eventual upward break of this range may be seen later on to target its all time high of 0.9497 provided .9220 holds as Support. A downward break below 0.9220 could result in a fall towards 0.9100. The Aussie Labour force data is coming out on Thursday, which would be important.
In the short term, the immediate Support is at 0.9260. Below that the Support is at 0.9214, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 0.9315. Above that the Resistance is at 0.9362-63, the statistically projected Max High for the day. This Resistance also coincides with the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the highs of 0.9423 (03-Mar) and 0.9388 (06-Mar). We donâ€™t have any trades currently. However, a dip towards 0.9220 could be used to buy with a stop loss below 0.9190.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 10K at 0.9220, SL 0.9180, TP 0.9330
See Aussie Labour force chart at
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