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Tuesday March 11, 2008 - 03:57:40 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURJPY

 

Price:                            156.24

Resistance: 156.34 156.66 157.07 157.38
Support: 155.92 155.56 155.03 154.87

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: Mixed – waiting for breaks

Daily Bullish: Price action has become a little strange. While it has broken below the 155.92 low the downside hasn’t developed strongly. We should be aware of the possibility we have seen a small expanded flat correction. In this case a move back above 156.34 and the 156.66 pivot area would likely cause follow-through to 157.07-38. This resistance is important and any follow-through above would imply a move back to the 158.34 at least en route the 159.21-46 area again.
MT Bullish: I still think the downside looks more probable but cannot rule out a move back to 159.21-46. However, only above here would cause a stronger retest of the 161.39 high. (11th March)
Daily Bearish: The slippage through 155.92 does seem to suggest stronger losses but we need to be cautious as this move may only be a correction. Thus only while the 156.34-66 area caps is there more downside chance. A move below 155.56 would assist for losses to 154.87-155.03 at least. There is also a support at 154.66 and breach would trigger stronger losses to 153.74-91.
MT Bearish: Losses have developed from the 161.39 high and also below the 155.92 low. However, we still need breach of 154.66 to cause stronger momentum for 153.74 at least and probably lower. (11th March)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

11th March

I am not 100% comfortable with the 155.56 low. It may be a Wave a of a minor Wave iii lower – or it could just be a small overshoot within a basically flat correction.

If we see a rise back above the 156.66 pivot area it would favor a move back towards the 159.21 high and possibly the prior 159.46 corrective high before seeing stronger losses.

To confirm losses in Wave –c- we need breach of the 38.2% expansion in an expanded flat at 154.66. If seen then look for a wave equality target at 153.74 at least while a 138.2% projection lies at 151.65.

Ian Copsey

 

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