Wednesday March 12, 2008 - 05:19:19 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY
||Mixed â€“ waiting for breaks|
||The 101.40 low held for a second time from where we have seen a solid rally. It also set up a potential double bottom which has a target around 105.00-05. For this to develop directly we shall need the 102.70 level to hold and force a second rally up through yesterdayâ€™s 103.57 high which should then set up a test of 104.22 minimum and probably to 104.63. Above this needs to be handled with care. The double bottom suggests 105.05 but there is also sturdy resistance around 104.80.|
||The downside has been relentless but given we are around the long string of lows around 101.20-60 there does seem to be a stronger argument for a correction towards 104.59-80 at least â€“ max 105.02-39. (10th March)|
||The sharp recovery is positive for the bullish stance but there is risk that weâ€™ll see a choppy recovery from here in which price could easily slide lower. The break area for a direct rally is at 102.70. Thus a break below here opens risk for a messy decline down to 102.48 and 102.23 and probably max at 101.91. Even then with the corrective low at 101.41 I cannot totally rule out an even deeper pullback. Thus be aware of the support levels and watch reactions at each. |
||Losses have been seen without much of a pullback. There is a large daily target at 98.90. Ahead of that there is a string of targets at 100.46, 100.16 and 99.58. I would prefer to see a pullback before reaching. (11th March)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We have seen Wave â€“iii- at 101.40 although the internal wave relationships have not been too accurate. There is a 38.2% retracement in Wave â€“iv- at 104.00 and 41.4% at 104.22 followed by the 50% at 104.80 and the double bottom target at 105.05 which is also a pivotal area.
If I have any preference between these it is actually the 104.22 area which would set up a 76.4% projection in Wave â€“v- to reach the 98.90 target where Wave C will equal Wave A.
However, watch out for the correction becoming complex â€“ so a flat/expanded flat/triangle.
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