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Wednesday March 12, 2008 - 11:34:54 GMT
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FX Blog- TTN European Market Update

European Market Update: Euro-Zone Industrial Orders Blow Out Estimates

· *** ECONOMIC DATA ***

· FR Feb CPI: M/M 0.2% v 0.4%e || Y/Y 2.8% v 3.0%e

· FR Feb CPI Harmonized: M/M 0.2% v 0.3%e || Y/Y 3.2% v 3.3%e

· FR Feb CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 116.57 v 116.68e

· SP Jan Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.9% prior

· SP Jan Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -2. 4% v -1.9% prior

· SW Feb AMV Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3. 4%e

· UK Jan Visible Trade Balance: -£7.5B v -£7.5Be || Prior revised from -£7.57B to -£7.51B

· UK Jan Total Trade Balance: -£4.1B v -£4.6Be || Prior revised from -£4.72B to -£4.09B

· UK Jan Trade Balance Non-Eu: -£4.29B v -£4.1Be || Prior revised from -£4.08B to -£4. 11B

· EU Jan Industrial Production: M/M 0.9% v 0.4%e || Prior revised from -0.2% to 0.0% |||| Y/Y 3.8% v 2.6%e || Prior revised from 1.3% to 1.7%

· SZ Mar Zew Expectations Survey: -71.7 v -55. 6e

· *** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***

· German Export Group BGA: Forecasts 2008 exports +5.0% y/y vs. previous forecast of +5%-6% || Forecasts Euro rate of $1.40-1.50 by the end of the year || Headwinds for exports are stronger due to the Euro and financial markets || The ECB is stuck between a rock and a hard place on strong Euro and inflation || Advocates ECB fight against inflation as its top priority || Maintains 2008 GDP growth forecast of 1.7%

· Bank of America cuts its USD forecast: Sees Dollar at 98/yen vs. previous forecast of 108/yen || Sees Dollar at $1. 58/Euro vs. previous forecast of $1.48/Euro || Sees Fed rates at 1.50% by June 30 || Cites growth and rate outlook

· *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

· On the commodity front crude futures are trading within range of the $110-handle. According to a Goldman Sachs note sent to clients late yesterday, oil is at risk from substantial fund liquidation due to cyclical demand weaknesses in the next few months. The analyst went on to say "we believe that the combination of low economic growth in the United States and high oil price inflation will have its strongest impact on demand in the first half of the year”. Elsewhere on the oil front Iraq oil exports to Turkey from the Kirkuk oil field were halted. Although these exports are halted on a somewhat regular basis, it is notable as the field produces 400K bpd. According to OPEC, its daily basket hit a new all time high on Tuesday above the $100/barrel-handle. Looking ahead to today's inventory data, market participants currently expect that crude inventories rose by 1.68M barrels, while gasoline inventories are expected to be relatively unchanged, and distillate inventories are expected to decline by 2M barrels. Taking a look at the metals spot gold is slightly lower in European trading as dollar's ability to maintain most of its gains in Asian trading capped any attempted gold rallies towards the $1000-handle. Platinum was lower in early trading as market participants adjusted long positions, however power supply issues in South Africa are seen limiting declines. Copper futures recently bounced back into positive territory as the US dollar began to slide mid-way through European trading.

· The European indices are currently trading higher in the session led by the basic resources and insurance sectors. Keefe Bruyette cut shares of UBS to an underperform rating overnight. Keefe Bruyette raised its writedown estimate for UBS to CHF15.0B from CHF5.0B, and said that first- quarter writedowns are seen wiping out 2008 profit. Looking ahead cult stocks JA Solar and Verasun Energy are expected to report during the US pre- market today, along with retailer American Eagle Outfitters.

· European fixed income futures are currently trading lower in the session as equities rise on the back of the coordinated central bank actions announced yesterday. There has been a flattening in European yield curves overnight, with the greatest change seen in the UK, followed by Germany and France. Looking at the Euribor curve, following the announcement of yesterday's central bank actions market participants are pulling away from bets of 50bps in rate cuts by the end of 2008, however we remain within the 25/50 range. Similarly in the US fed funds futures are currently pricing in around a 62% chance of 75bps in rate cuts, down from 86% late yesterday. Elsewhere, Bank of America said that it expects the Fed to cut rates to 1.50% by June 30th. In new supply overnight the Bundesbank sold €6.599B in new 3.00% 2-year schatz with an average yield of 3.22% and a bid-to-cover of 1.409. The bid-to-cover compares to the 1.2x seen at the last auction of the previous issue.

· The USD's post Fed announcement strength seems to be slowly evaporating as commodity prices continue to maintain elevated levels. Front month NYMEX crude continues to probe the 109-area, while spot gold remains within striking distance of the $1,000 level. Global inflationary fears are hampering any following through USD buying. UAE Economic Min changing the USD peg may ease inflation and stresses that the USD's fate remains in foreign hands. Overall the USD continues to consolidate within its 1-week trading range against the majors.

 

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