Friday October 22, 2004 - 02:24:27 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen Price: 107.60
107.85 ... 108.20 ... 108.45 ... 108.65
107.33 ... 106.95 ... 106.60 ... 106.40
We feel a retracement above 107.85 should be seen taking price to 108.45-65
Price continued it's decline and marginally broke below the 107.45-60 target. However we see support in this area - around 107.25-35 and still feel this should hold and generate a move higher. This would be confirmed on a break above 107.85. If seen look for follow-through to at least 108.20 and we feel towards 108.45-65. Further resistance is at 109.00.
Marginal break seen below 107.45 and while this concerns we do see a cluster of targets around 107.15-35. Thus we would not want to get too bearish until this lower area breaks. Thus only if seen look for follow-through with support also seen at 106.95 but we would expect a test of the 106-40-60 area.
Elliott Wave Comments:
October 22nd 2004
The loss of 107.60 and also 107.45 does imply that the previous scenario of a daily triangle has broken down. We have threfeore adjusted our count to take this into account, labelling the 112.46 high as Wave [ii] of a decline and thus we are seeing Wave [iii] developing. Within this Wave (a) x 261.8% implies target of 106.40 while Wave [iii] at a multiple of 138.2% of Wave [i] implies a target at 106.60. We feel that the 107.33 low may well have completed Wave -iii- of Wave (c) and thus a pullback to 108.60-00 to complete Wave -iv- is likely before Wave -v- declines to the 106.40-60 target area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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