User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday March 14, 2008 - 23:55:46 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - A 75bp Fed Cut Seems Guaranteed, But What About The Dollar?


Friday, 14 March 2008 21:32:13 GMT

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• Japanese Yen Crosses Plunge As Risk Aversion Comes Back – Is Intervention Possible
• Euro Sets A New Record, Inflation Near 15-Year High

A 75bp Fed Cut Seems Guaranteed, But What About The Dollar?

The double dip has come and gone. The dollar has plunged to new lows against many of its major counterparts. However, wading into the action, the most significant moves came on the part of the risk-related, carry pairs: USDJPY and USDCHF. Marking another remarkable milestone for the currency market, USDCHF dropped below parity for the first time in history. For the yen pair, 100 seemed a strong floor that would require a higher power (like BoJ intervention) to produce a significant break or rebound before next week’s Fed rate decision. In the end, all that was needed was the same driver that ushered the pair to its 12-year low over the past two weeks – risk sentiment. US policy makers made yet another concerted effort Friday to right the roiled credit markets. Just three days after announcing the new TSLF program, the Fed was prompted into action once again by the imminent collapse of one of world’s largest investment banks. Bear Stearns CEO Alan Schwartz said in a statement this morning that his firm’s liquidity position had “significantly deteriorated” from Thursday as investors made significant withdrawals on rumors the firm was facing a cash crisis. Playing out much like the Fed’s bailout of Long Term Capital Management back in 1998, Bear Stearns tapped the Federal Reserve of New York for temporary funding. And, since the broker does not have access to the discount window, the loan was actually made through JP Morgan on Bear Stearns behalf. This was certainly a necessary move as the collapse of a major investment firm like Bear Stearns in these fragile markets could trigger a global market crash. To further bolster confidence in the US markets, the Fed released a two sentence statement stating the bank stood ready “to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system;” and President Bush reiterated his confidence in the US economy in a speech in New York. And, while the liquidity injection and assuring words may calm credit market fears, they also practically guarantee a 75 basis point rate cut (or greater) when the FOMC announces its policy decision on Tuesday. Fed funds futures have fully priced in 75bp of easing and set a 60 percent probability of a 100bp cut. If the Fed does lower rates to 2.00 percent, it will only be a mater of time before the market begins to realize the policy group is running out of options to salvage the economy and markets. What’s more, this attempt at securing the stability of financial stability has left the dollar out to dry. This has been the basis behind speculation that global central banks will collaborate for the first time in 13 years to rescue the dollar. The timing of such an effort will be critical.

Japanese Yen Crosses Plunge As Risk Aversion Comes Back – Is Intervention Possible

The Japanese yen crosses resumed their descent on Friday as investor sentiment took a beating on news that Bear Stearns faced a massive liquidity crunch. Indeed, shares of the firm fell over 40 percent as JP Morgan Chase & Co. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have joined forces to provide the financial institution with secured funding for up to 28 days. The DJIA fell as much as 300 points shortly after the announcement, though the index closed -194.65 points at 11,951.09. The marked spike in risk aversion led the USD/JPY pair to finally break below the 100 mark, a level that we questioned as being excessively low in a recent special report. Nevertheless, the Bank of Japan is known to wait for the Japanese yen to hit speculative extremes before considering intervention, which are nearing (look for the release of Monday’s weekly COT report for more). Furthermore, intervention is most effective in the short-term at times of lower liquidity, which leaves us wondering if the Bank will take action at the market open next week or during the US holiday next Friday.

Visit the Japanese Yen Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

Euro Sets A New Record, Inflation Near 15-Year High

EURUSD set a new all-time high through the close of the week. For a fundamentally light Friday, the Euro Zone economic calendar had the reigns on event risk before the ruckus in the New York session began. Inflation was the theme of the day between the Euro Zone’s fourth quarter labour cost report and February consumer-level inflation. Strong employment was accompanied by higher wages through the end of 2007 as annual growth in labour costs accelerated to 2.7 percent, the fastest clip since the second quarter of 2006. Far more critical to the outlook for the ECB’s policy stance was the unexpected uptick in both headline and core inflation to 3.3 and 1.8 percent respectively. This is the fastest pace for the headline gauge since 1993, and confirms President’s Trichet’s concerns of upside risks to inflation.

Visit the Euro Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

Commodity Dollars Weighed Down As Gold Backs Off from Record of $1009

During the US trading session, gold futures rocketed to a record high of $1,009/oz on the Bear Stearns news, but the metal subsequently pulled back, while oil futures fell to $110.10/bbl after hitting a record of $111/bbl yesterday. The price action weighed on the commodity dollars – including the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar – but it is worth noting that NZD/USD tested the 26-year highs near 0.8200 once again today, as manufacturing sales gained 8.3 percent in Q4 as production of meat and dairy products surged. This was the sharpest increase since record-keeping began 15 years and was led by a 26 percent jump in meat and dairy output.

Tell us what you think on the Canadian dollar Forum.

British Pound Trade Remains Volatile – Risks to the Downside Next Week

The Federal Reserve’s meeting will clearly be the primary central bank news to watch next week, but the release of the minutes of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Meeting is a known market-mover for the British pound. The news could weigh on the pair as there were likely a few votes for at least a 25bp rate cut. We can bet that über-dove David Blanchflower was one of the MPC members in favor of a cut, but the more members in favor of a rate reduction, the more bearish the minutes will be for the British pound pairs.

Visit the British Pound Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.




Written by John Kicklighter and Terri Belkas, Currency Analysts for


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader


Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook

Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated


Trader's Advocate Articles..


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105