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Friday October 22, 2004 - 13:09:12 GMT
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GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary for Friday, October 22, 2004

Daily Commentary by Cornelius Luca, currencies analyst, Global Forex Trading (source: http://www.gftforex.com/resources/daily.asp?date=10222004)

The dollar melted further down on Thursday, as expected. The weakness was particularly evident versus the yen and the pound, which were propelled by strong domestic data. The US economic indicators were mostly weak, save for the Philly Fed report. The dollar weakness should continue into the end of the week.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar advanced for the seventh consecutive day on Thursday and reached a new eight-month high of 1.2651. This strength should continue on Friday as well.

Above this top, the pair could test the resistance in the 1.2710 area. A break higher would further extend this rally and the pair would challenge the further resistance at 1.2767.

Immediate support now comes between 1.2580 and 1.2570 and a break lower would signal a drop to 1.2500. Only an unlikely break lower would signal the end of this upmove and the pair would then fall to 1.2400.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen accelerated its losses on Thursday following a strong trade surplus and record export levels, and fell to a four-month low of 107.34. This weakness should continue on Friday, but the pace of the decline should now decelerate. The slide gathered momentum after the break of the key level at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which reached the downside target of 107.45.

Below 107,34, there is the 107.00 support level. This is followed by the key to-point pivot at 106.75, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.

If the pair manages to recover, then look for a test of the area between 107.85 and 107.95. An unexpected break higher would target 108.45. Above the area between 108.65 and 108.80, dollar/yen still has resistance at 109.15 and then at 109.65.

Oscillators are heading lower.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish

Sterling/dollar
An unexpected strong UK retail sales report made traders forget about the impending burst of the housing bubble and sterling/dollar surged to a new two-month high of 1.8307, quite a rally from Tuesday’s high of 1.8187.

Above 1.8307, the pair will challenge the resistance at 1.8342 and a break above the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.8364 would add further confidence to the channel rising since early October. There is a pivotal peak at 1.8464.

Immediate support is now seen in the 1.8237 area. A break lower would face good support at 1.8190. If this level gives way, then look for a decline to 1.8070, but this is unlikely.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss marched marginally lower on Thursday to coin a new 9 ½-month low at 1.2145.

If the sell-off continues, the pair target 1.2130 and a break lower would signal a further decline to 1.2088. Distant support level remains at 1.1874.

Any recovery will face immediate resistance at 1.2227; a move above 1.2267 would call for a test at 1.2376. An unlikely break above this level would signal a recovery to 1.2428.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




 

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