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Tuesday March 18, 2008 - 04:53:05 GMT
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Daily Analysis for AUDUSD

 

Price:                            0.9198

Resistance: 0.9221 0.9252 0.9285 0.9338
Support: 0.9163 0.9125 0.9089 0.9043

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: I suspect a pullback but while this remains below 0.9247-57 we should see losses to 0.8988-0.9004

Daily Bullish: Losses have been seen as warned which have stalled 3 points above the 0.9122 support. We are currently seeing a pullback and I feel this has potential to the 0.9247-57 area. However, anything further will require breach and if seen then gains are likely towards 0.9285 and probably more likely higher to 0.9338-55.
MT Bullish: This morning’s sharp decline is risking a peak having already been seen. Only back above 0.9444 and 0.9496 would bring back the risk of seeing the 0.9533-63 target – max 0.9624.  (17th March)
Daily Bearish: With the 0.9122 support holding I still see this as part of an overall decline. We should allow for a correction that could move as high as 0.9247-57 but while this area caps we should then see losses back to retest the 0.9125 low with a final target expected around 0.8988-0.9004 and maximum 0.8956.
MT Bearish: We are seeing stronger losses this morning and this is threatening additional losses. Below 0.9176 would extend to 0.9121 and probably to 0.8988 and the 0.8872 corrective low. (17th March)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

17th March

This morning’s sharp losses already nullify the bullish alternative and the only way this could still remain within a bullish structure would be if we are seeing a long sideways triangle in Wave iv. It seems unlikely.

Back below a 223.6% extension in a possible Wave iii lower at 0.9196 would imply follow-through below the 0.9147 low. Watch the wave equality target at 0.9121. Beyond there a 138.2% projection is at 0.8988.

18th March

I feel the 0.9125 low was only Wave iii and thus while Wave iv remains below the 38.2%-41.4% retracement at 0.9247-57 we should see extension lower towards the 138.2% projection in Wave c at 0.8988.

Ian Copsey

 

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