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Thursday March 20, 2008 - 11:30:01 GMT
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European Market Update: UK Retail Sales Ahead in February

European Market Update: UK Retail Sales Ahead in February


· GE Feb Producer Prices: M/M 0.7% v 0.3%e || Y/Y 3.8% v 3.4%e

· SZ Feb Trade Balance [chf]: 1.55B v 1.22B prior || Prior revised from 1.22B to 1. 06B

· SZ Feb Producer & Import Prices: M/M 0.2% v 0.3%e || Y/Y 3.6% v 3.7%e

· FR Mar Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 v 53. 4e

· FR Mar Preliminary Services PMI: 57.3 v 57.7

· GE Mar Advanced Manufacturing PMI: 54.9 v 54.0e

· GE Mar Advanced Services PMI: 52.5 v 51.8e

· EU Mar Advanced Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 v 52. 0e

· EU Mar Advanced Services PMI: 51.7 v 52.0e

· EU Mar Advanced Composite PMI: 51.9 v 52.4e

· IT Q4 Unemployment Rate: 6.0% v 5.9%e || Prior revised from 5.9% to 6.0%

· UK Feb Retail Sales: M/M 1.0% v -0.2%e || Prior revised from 0.8% to 1.1% |||| Y/Y 5.5% v 3.6%e || Prior revised from 5.6% to 5.9%

· UK Feb Public Finances: £2.9B v £2.5Be || Prior revised form -£22.1B to -£22.0B

· UK Feb Net Borrowing: £2.7B v £2.5Be || Prior revised from -£14.1B to -£14. 0Be

· UK Feb M4 Money Supply: M/M 0.3% v 0.9%e || Prior revised from 1.4% to 1.5% |||| Y/Y 12.3% v 12.9%e

· UK Feb M4 Sterling Lending: £16.4B v £16.5Be || Prior revised from £21.8B to £21.4Be


· ECB Liebscher says danger of too much negative talk, positives over looked || Concerned about excessive volatility in fx markets || Believes message of the ECB is very clear || Sees a 'steady hand' policy of ECB as optimal || EMU growth 2008 slightly under potential.

· German MOF: Reiterates that growth dynamics remain strong || Sees no sign of a significant consumer spending rebound || Price risks are restraining consumer spending || Economic dynamism to slow in 2008 || Trade will boost 2008 growth

· OECD Lowers GDP forecasts for US, Europe and Japan || Sees US economy stagnating in Q2 || FED must be mindful to keep inflation expectations anchored || USD weakening is unnatural; euro looks high but helps to curb inflation || FED policy about right at this time || ECB keeping rates at current level may be the right thing || Japan has little monetary or fiscal ammunition left to tackle weakness || Sees US Q1 GDP at +0.1%, Q2 at 0.0% || Sees Japan Q1 GDP at 0. 3%, Q2 at 0.2% || Sees Euro-Zone Q1 GDP at 0.5% and Q2 at 0.4%


· Shares of Inmobiliaria Colonial failed to open this morning following word that the Investment Corporation of Dubai pulled out of the deal to buy the debt ridden Spanish real estate group after it failed to reach an agreement with the company's creditors. Credit Suisse opened sharply lower this morning after the bank made significant downward restatements to its fourth-quarter and full-year 2007 results. The company revised its fourth-quarter net down to CHF540M from the initial report of CHF1.33B; the comparable estimate is CHF1.43B. The full-year 2007 net was revised down to CHF7.76B, down from the initial report of CHF8.55B. The restatement comes after an internal review found that a small number of traders made intentional pricing errors. As a result of the downward revisions the company said that it does not expect to post a profit during the first-quarter of 2008. Belgian biopharmaceutical company UCB is trading lower today after it recalled certain Neupro batcher in
Europe and the US due to a deviation from approved product specifications. According to Handelsblatt newspaper Deutsche Bank was the only European bank amongst bidders for Bear Stearns. While the bank dropped out of the bidding race on March 15, it could make another bid for Bear as the company is looking for new bidders as it believes that JP Morgan's $236M offer is too low. Handelsblatt is also running an article about German bank IKB speculating that the bank may make additional writedowns after it halted an auction for risky assets after offers were too low. The failed auction could delay the planned sale of the bank. On the consolidation front there were rumors circulating overnight that Standard Chartered may make a joint bid along with Chinese based Industrial & Commercial Bank of China to acquire the Honk Kong based Wing Lung Bank. In sector rotation overnight both UBS and Lehman Brothers downgraded the US airline sector.

· Crude oil futures continued to decline overnight as concerns about the impact of a
US economic recession on demand have began to take their toll once again after crude prices peaked last week. Following fund de-leveraging crude futures fell below the $100-handle for the first time since March 5th. Spot gold was also significantly lower overnight, making its way back towards the $900-handle.

· European fixed income futures are currently mixed. While trading levels are spread across the red and the green one thing is certain, futures are following a downward trend. Long-gilt futures were took a big hit following the release of stronger than expected retail sales data for the month of February. Futures maintained their initial post-release losses. In new supply overnight France sold €1.805B in 3.00% Jan 2010 BTAN with an average yield of 3.53% and a bid-to-cover of 3.061x, as well as €1.395 in 3.50% Jan 2011 BTAN with an average yield of 3.53% and a bid-to-cover of 3.022x, and €940M in 3.75% Jan 2013 BTAN with an average yield of 3.65% and a bid-to-cover of 6.622x.

· The sharp pullback in oil and gold markets has aided the USD in its recovery from recent all time lows against the Euro and Swiss pairs and 12-year lows against the JPY. FX dealers cite that leverage is being forcibly reduced by various "fund of funds". The CAD broadly weaker by 130 pips as metals and oil prices drop. USD/CAD at 1.0240 and AUD/USD at 0.9070


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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

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