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Monday October 25, 2004 - 09:52:04 GMT
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Forex: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 10-25-04

Pity the USD bulls. We can hardly blame them for thinking that the whole world is positioned against them. After today’ s 120 drubbing against the euro and 150 point loss against the pound it may very well be. Tonight’s one piece of economic data – the German IFO survey of business confidence was essentially a non-event. The index printed a little better than expected (95.3 vs. 94.8 consensus) with retail sector a bit more positive while manufacturing was more negative. The best that could be said about the IFO results is that they show a temporary stabilization in an overall downtrend.

At present, however, the EUR/USD is not trading on economic news-flow. There are three primary factors that are driving the dollar down; the market’s sudden realization that the Current Account deficit is unsustainable at such record levels and will require dollar devaluation to correct the imbalance, the relentless rise in oil which bodes very badly for future US domestic demand, and finally the uncertainty surrounding the US election. The market well understands that the election is a dead heat and will remain so until every vote is cast and counted. As we wrote Friday, “currencies tend to destabilize before any close elections more because of unpredictability of the event rather than any specific policy implications of whichever candidate wins the office. Once the US election is resolved the market is likely to refocus on economic news-flow.”

The volatile price action is further aggravated by large hedge funds which continue to aggressively sell the USD/CHF pair driving it close 8 year lows. The sudden plunge in the greenback has taken many option players by surprise forcing them to stop out of their positions, and thus exacerbating the downward move. Given euro’s near vertical rise over the past two days we look for a pause and retracement to the 2700 handle. However, should this decline turn into a panic the all time highs of 1.2927 may be quickly within reach.

FX Spot Overnight

- EUR barrels through to the 2800 handle as USD bearishness accelerates
- JPY blows through 107 and comes within 20 pips of 106 as market ignores fears of intervention
- GBP mounts nearly a 200 point rise as USD bears press their case
- CHF breaks the seminal 2000 level on hedge fund selling

Upcoming Events

14:00GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Existing Home Sales (SEP) Expected 6.51M, Previous 6.54M

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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