User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Saturday March 22, 2008 - 11:40:14 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - What to Expect for the US Dollar

Friday, 21 March 2008 20:58:00 GMT

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• Eurozone Consumers Continue to Spend
• British Pound: April Rate Cut Will be a Close Call

What to Expect for the US Dollar
Markets around the globe were closed for Good Friday which led to zero volatility in currencies. After a week of wild swings, the quiet trading gives everyone an opportunity to think about what could impact the US dollar in the week ahead. Banks have not been shy about tapping into the Fed’s new liquidity provisions and the recent move in the stock market suggests that the central bank’s efforts have helped to temporarily ease the latest uncertainty in the financial markets. The demise of Bear Stearns could have led to a huge collapse in the stock market, but actions by the Fed have helped stocks end the week higher than its pre-Bear Stearns levels. The biggest problem in the financial markets right now is the fear of counterparty risk. By allowing investment banks to post a broader range of collateral for a longer period of time, the Federal Reserve has in effect, swapped their safe Treasury bonds for dodgier assets such as mortgage backed securities. Unfortunately this will only be a temporary solution to a serious problem which is why we haven’t seen the end of dollar weakness. Two weeks from now, we have non-farm payrolls due for release and the vulnerability of the labor market will come back to the forefront. Goldman Sachs just joined Citigroup in announcing a new round of layoffs. However before those numbers are released, we do have a week of only Tier 2 US economic data, or data that should not be particularly market moving. The most important releases are existing and new home sales, durable goods, consumer confidence, the final Q4 GDP numbers, personal income and personal spending. Everyone expects the housing market to remain weak, but consumer confidence could surprise to the upside since the weekly ABC numbers have shown signs of stability. The GDP numbers are the final figures for the fourth quarter, which means that they should not be particularly market moving. Therefore even though the US dollar could resume its slide relatively soon, the lack of any Tier 1 economic data such as non-farm payrolls, inflation reports or retail sales does not ensure that this will happen in the coming week. In the meantime, keep an eye on the equity and bond markets. If they continue to stabilize, the dollar could extend its rebound, but if volatility grapples the market once again, the dollar could quickly resume its slide.

Eurozone Consumers Continue to Spend
In contrast to the US, Eurozone economic data continues to surprise to the upside. Last month’s German retail sales report was strong and now we see that same strength extended to France and Italy. Consumers are spending which is helping to make the ECB’s job a much easier one than the Fed. No European bank is at the brink of collapse and for the time being, the economy remains stable. Next week, we have the German IFO report. Once again, analysts expect business confidence to deteriorate but the odds are definitely in favor of a stronger release. The flash estimates of manufacturing and service sector PMI both surprised to the upside which suggests that business for German corporations remained strong last month. Aside from the IFO, we are also expecting Eurozone Current Account numbers and retail PMI. The Swiss franc on the other hand has had a relatively good week with the liquidation in carry trades. The UBS Consumption and the KoF leading indicator reports are due for release next week. With retail sales deteriorating, we expect further weakness in the Swiss Franc which dovetails with our Technical Analyst’s call for a plunge in CHF/JPY.

Visit the Euro Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

British Pound: April Rate Cut Will be a Close Call
It has been a volatile week for the British pound with dovish Bank of England minutes and weak employment numbers offset by a much stronger than expected retail sales report. April’s rate cut by the BoE will be a particularly tough call. Following the minutes and employment numbers, the expectation for a 25bp rate cut next month increased significantly, but the retail sales numbers definitely came from left field. Therefore next week’s current account, house price and CBI distributive trades report will be particularly important in determining whether the retail sales number was simply a fluke or representative of a broader recovery in the UK economy.

Visit the British Pound Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

Carry Trades Rebound But Don’t Count On a Broad Recovery

With the stock market closed for Easter, carry trades have extended their rise. If another shoe does not drop next week, we could see a further rebound, but a rebound does not make a recovery. We continue to stress that the current market environment makes it very difficult for carry trades to recover. It is also the fiscal year end for Japan, which means that repatriation could keep the yen under pressure. Meanwhile there are a lot of Japanese economic data due for release next week and we expect most of them to be Yen positive.

Visit the Japanese Yen Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollars Continue to Slide Amid Lower
The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars recovered slightly from their steep decline yesterday. Next week’s data releases imply continued volatility in the commodity currencies, as Canadian retail sales figures are projected to be higher in light of 33 year low unemployment figures and wholesale sales rising at the fastest pace in 13 months. In the backdrop of a suffering economy, consumers continue to be the pillar of confidence, as projections imply continued spending in the coming months. Down under the New Zealand trade balance forecasts remain positive, boosted by the surging prices in dairy export, but with the recent declines in commodity prices, it remains to be seen if the economy will still continue to show a trade surplus. Although New Zealand GDP forecasts imply growth in the economy, the country’s finance minister fears the possibility of a short lived recession, as consumer confidence dips to a 19 month low.

Tell us what you think on the Canadian dollar Forum.

Daily_3_21_01

Daily_3_21_02




By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

Contact Kathy Lien about this article at klien@dailyfx.com

 






©2007 DailyFX. All Rights Reserved.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105