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Thursday March 27, 2008 - 04:38:28 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts - Asian Morning BriefingEQUITIES
After a short 3-week rally in the Dow Jones, yesterdayâ€™s fall was perhaps a return to the reality of a downtrend, which the Dow has been under all through the year so far. However it would be still too premature to declare that the 3-week rally is over. This is primarily because Dow lost 109.74 points to close at 12422.86, compared to a couple of hefty 175 points + gain on 20th and 24th-March. The tech heavy NASDAQ lost 16.69 points yesterday to close at 2324.36.
Asian markets are broadly trading under pressure after the fall in the US markets overnight, down 1.0% - 1.5%. The main weak market is the Shanghai Index, which is down a hefty 5%, and the YTD losses on it are now approaching 35%.
Indian stocks are very likely to follow their Asian cousins and open lower. The Sensex is tipped to open near 15900, as compared to yesterdayâ€™s close of 16087. We could see volatility later on in the day, as the stock and index futures and options expire.
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Commodities had a sharp rally overnight, on a combination of weak Dollar and increased diversification away from stocks. Gold gained almost $14.20 yesterday to close at 949.20. It is trading near 952.30 currently, up almost $3.10 on the Apr contract. Silver too has been following Gold and the Spot price is currently at 18.37.
Crude shot up by almost $4.68 yesterday to close at 105.90. It is currently near 106.34, up further in the Asian session.
We had expected a rally in Gold in our report yesterday. To subscribe to our commodity reports, mail us at email@example.comCURRENCIES
Euro rallied to a high of 1.5861 yesterday, after the better than expected German IFO number, which was identified as a risky data, which could have triggered a sharp move. Euro is now targeting 1.5907, the all time high seen earlier in the month. Buyers are likely to be seen on dips.
Yen has gained on increased risk aversion and the fall in stock markets globally, to slip below the psychological 100 level once again. It is currently near 98.70, just above its important Support of 98.50, a break below which could target 97.50 during the week.
GBP-USD has remained relatively silent after the BOE said that â€śUKâ€™s current account deficit could result in a GBP fallâ€ť. It is currently near 2.0051. The near term range for the pair is pegged at 1.9800 and 2.0110, a move beyond which may not be seen.
Aussie has been relatively tame even as the rally in the commodities has failed to impact the currencies. The near term Resistance for the Aussie is at 0.9250-55 and above that the Resistance is at 0.9320.
Dollar-Rupee has opened near 40.1850.
The US Q4 Final GDP would come out later today. See chart at
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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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Thu 19 Oct
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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