Tuesday October 26, 2004 - 01:56:30 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 26th October 2004 Price: ... 1.2775
1.2890 ... 1.2825 ... 1.2840 ... 1.2860
1.2765 ... 1.2750 ... 1.2720 ... 1.2685
Watch signs of break out of the 1.2750 - 1.2825 range
The 1.2830 peak may
have satisfied the upside for now but until 1.2750-65 is broken we cannot ignore the chance of a spike higher to 1.2840-60 where we see a cluster of Fibonacci projections. Only a break here would allow follow-through to the final target at 1.2927-60. Although not expected today, any test of 1.2640-55 would provide a good buying opportunity.
While our wave count has not been accurate over the past few days, we now see resistance in the 1.2840-60 area and it is quite possible that yesterday's peak at 1.2830 satisfied the upside. However, only a break below 1.2750 would confirm this and if seen would allow losses to follow-through down to 1.2720-35 at least and possibly all the way down to 1.2685. Further support is found at 1.2640. Any earlier test of 1.2840-60 should be watched for signs of a cap and a medium term correction.
Elliott Wave Comments:
October 26th 2004
With yesterday's direct break higher we have needed to re-assess the underlying wave structure. From the daily cycle image it can be seen that we are now cautiously looking at the chance that the move lower from 1.2385 to 1.1986 actually completed an irregular triangle from where we are seeing a further ABC pattern , the first Wave -a- ending at 1.2442 with Wave -b- at 1.2224. Extending this by 1.382 provides a target of 1.2854 and by 1.618 provides a target of 1.2961. We favor this as a test of the 1.2927 high in a multi-week Flat Correction. Within Wave -c- we feel that Wave (iii) should reach the 1.2840-60 area to be followed by a pullback to 1.2640-80 in Wave (iv).
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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