User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday March 27, 2008 - 22:13:34 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - British Pound Could Break 2.0 if Disaster Hits UK Mortgage Lenders

 

Thursday, 27 March 2008 21:32:25 GMT

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• Dollar Lifted By Stronger GDP Numbers
• Euro Slips, But Rally Far From Over

British Pound Could Break 2.0 if Disaster Hits UK Mortgage Lenders

According to an article in the UK Times, Nationwide, the country’s second largest mortgage lender is planning to turn away business.  We wonder why a mortgage lender would resort to this unless trouble was brewing in house.  The Times argues that Nationwide is attempting to gain greater control over the amount that it lends and is doing so by increasing the rates on its tracker deals by more than 50bp.  Efforts such as these are exactly why central banks including the UK and the US are struggling to contain the credit crisis.  Despite interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, banks and mortgage lenders have reluctantly offered new loans while scrutiny has increased for potential borrowers, making it difficult for everyone. The liquidity crisis has hit the UK and US housing markets in more ways than one.  If a mortgage lender announces major losses or even worse, is forced to fold shop, the British pound could easily break 2.0 and slip down to 1.9850.  The news from Nationwide completely erased the British pound’s earlier gains which were driven by stronger economic data.  The CBI retail sales survey rebounded this month, while fourth quarter total business investment beat expectations. More UK numbers are due for release tomorrow with Nationwide house prices, current account for the fourth quarter and the final Q4 GDP numbers due for release.  Expect decent volatility in the British pound. 

Visit the British Pound Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the British Pound. 

Dollar Lifted By Stronger GDP Numbers

The US dollar strengthened across the board following the stronger than expected final Q4 GDP report. Even though, the headline number remained unchanged, personal consumption was revised upwards while core PCE and the price index were revised downwards.  This was good news for dollar bulls who have endured a weak of disappointing economic data.  Jobless claims also pared back, but that does not alleviate our concerns about the labor market.  Stronger spending and softer inflation reduces the need for a larger rate cut from the Federal Reserve, but this is Q4 data, which isn’t exactly reflective of current market conditions. Tomorrow’s personal income, personal spending and PCE deflator will be more telling.  With negative job growth in January and February, the odds are certainly skewed towards dollar bearish data.  The upward revision to GDP does not reduce the risk of a further slowdown in the US economy. The action will pick up next week with March non-farm payrolls due for release.  Cutting interest rates alone will not be enough. If we have a third consecutive month of negative job growth, the Federal Reserve will be forced to look for alternative ways to stimulate growth.                                                                                                                                                

Euro Slips, But Rally Far From Over

After rallying 400 pips in 2 days, the EURUSD was due for a correction.  Aside from German consumer confidence which beat expectations, there was no major Eurozone data released today.  ECB officials continue to remind us that inflation risks remain to the upside, but like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, they are becoming increasingly worried about the lack of liquidity in money markets.  More Eurozone data will be released tomorrow including German import prices, retail PMI for the entire Eurozone and any revisions to French Q4 GDP.  We continue to believe that the EUR/USD will not only test 1.60, but break it before the European Central Bank expresses any concern about the level of the currency.  Meanwhile the SNB also joined the liquidity party by offering 3 month funds at 2.2 percent.  Like the ECB, they are worried about money market rates which are under stress.  Banks continue to hoard cash and buy only short term Treasuries.  Switzerland will be releasing the KoF leading indicators report, which is expected to be strong following the improvement in the UBS Consumption index. 

Visit the Euro Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.       

Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars Lose Ground to the Greenback

New Zealand Finance Minister Cullen warned yesterday that the New Zealand economy faces serious challenges and is not immune to the global slowdown.  Last night, RBA Governor Stevens said the exact opposite by indicating that their financial system should be able to weather the storm because Australian banks have very little direct exposures to US subprime problems.  Interestingly enough, last night’s economic data suggests otherwise.  New Zealand’s trade deficit turned into a surplus for the first time since the 2000 to 2001 recession last month while the current account deficit for the fourth quarter narrowed.  Australia on the other hand reported a drop in leading indicators and job vacancies.  New Zealand GDP is due for release this evening along with money supply.  We expect GDP to be firm given the improvement in trade during the last 3 months of 2007. 

Tell us what you think on the Canadian dollar Forum. 

USDJPY: Vulnerable to More Losses

The Japanese Yen is weaker across the board, but that weakness may not last with tonight’s heavy economic calendar.  Household spending, consumer prices and labor market data are due for release.  We expect most of these numbers to be Yen positive because consumer confidence is off its lows while labor cash earnings have been strong.  The stock market closed at the day’s low which suggests that carry trades could be vulnerable to more losses.  On Monday, we published a report on why the USDJPY rally may be short-lived.  Our primary argument was risk reversals which indicated that traders were paying a staggering premium for 3 month USDJPY puts.  Since then, risk reversals have become even more extreme.  The last time we saw risk reversals at these levels was in August, when USDJPY dropped close to 1000 points in less than a month.

Visit the Japanese Yen Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Yen.

Daily1_3-27

Daily2_3-27

Daily3_3-27



By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

Contact Kathy Lien about this article at klien@dailyfx.com

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105