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Friday March 28, 2008 - 03:51:29 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts - Asian Morning Briefings

EQUITIES

US Equities fell nearly another 1.0% yesterday, the bellwether Dow Jones closing lower by 120.40 points at 12302.46. NASDAQ was under greater pressure, and it shed about 43.53 points, to close at 2280.83.

The Asian markets opened negative on back of US cues, however they have bounced back, to trade between +0.5% to –0.5% currently. The notable exception continues to be the Shanghai Index, which has lost another 1.5% today, and clearly remains the weak link in the Asian pack. It remains to be seen whether it bounces back later on in the day, after the sharp fall in the week so far.

Indian stocks are likely to open stable to slightly negative on back of US and Asian stock cues, in absence of any major news overnight. Note that today, the weekly WPI numbers is to be declared around 12:00 local time. A move above 6.0% is likely to be very negative for stocks, as the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates. The last reported figure was 5.92%.

For Equity market charts, please click on
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/djiacandle.shtml
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nasdaqcandle.shtml
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nikkeicandle.shtml
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/sensexcandle.shtml


COMMODITIES

Gold was calm and stayed below $950. It is expected to face Resistance at $965 for today, provided a sustained move above $950 is seen. On the downside likely Support is at $940. Gold currently is at $946.60, but it is to be noted that in the early session it has traded at $951.10. We expect a period of sideways consolidation.

Crude, currently near 107.10, has resumed its rally and seems ready to test the high of $111.80. However, $105 could be seen before momentum can be built to scale past the highs.

To subscribe to our commodity reports, mail us at info@kshitij.com

CURRENCIES

Euro went up to a high of 1.5846 yesterday, however it fell from there on account of profit booking. It is currently near 1.5787. It continues to be within kissing distance of 1.5907, the all time high. That has the possibility of being tested today. We expect buying on dips.

Yen lost ground, despite stocks losing ground overnight, which was bit of a surprise. We remain positive on Yen and there could be a test of 98.50 on the downside for USD-JPY. The main Resistance on the upside being at 100.40.

GBP-USD was the mover of the day yesterday as it has moved back above its 200-Day MA of 2.0145, to test a high of 2.0195. It has fallen back from there. There is no clear direction for the pair, and it is choppy within its wide range of 2.0200 and 1.9800.

Dollar Rupee is likely to open a bit firmer today, after the fall yesterday. The important data to watch today would be the weekly WPI number.

DATA TODAY

US Personal Income and the Core PCE Price Index for the month of Feb-08 would come out today, with the latter being the more important of the two. See the historical chart at

http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usperinc.shtml
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/uspce.shtml
 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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