Friday March 28, 2008 - 03:51:29 GMT
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FX Thoughts - Asian Morning Briefings
US Equities fell nearly another 1.0% yesterday, the bellwether Dow Jones closing lower by 120.40 points at 12302.46. NASDAQ was under greater pressure, and it shed about 43.53 points, to close at 2280.83.
The Asian markets opened negative on back of US cues, however they have bounced back, to trade between +0.5% to â€“0.5% currently. The notable exception continues to be the Shanghai Index, which has lost another 1.5% today, and clearly remains the weak link in the Asian pack. It remains to be seen whether it bounces back later on in the day, after the sharp fall in the week so far.
Indian stocks are likely to open stable to slightly negative on back of US and Asian stock cues, in absence of any major news overnight. Note that today, the weekly WPI numbers is to be declared around 12:00 local time. A move above 6.0% is likely to be very negative for stocks, as the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates. The last reported figure was 5.92%.
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Gold was calm and stayed below $950. It is expected to face Resistance at $965 for today, provided a sustained move above $950 is seen. On the downside likely Support is at $940. Gold currently is at $946.60, but it is to be noted that in the early session it has traded at $951.10. We expect a period of sideways consolidation.
Crude, currently near 107.10, has resumed its rally and seems ready to test the high of $111.80. However, $105 could be seen before momentum can be built to scale past the highs.
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Euro went up to a high of 1.5846 yesterday, however it fell from there on account of profit booking. It is currently near 1.5787. It continues to be within kissing distance of 1.5907, the all time high. That has the possibility of being tested today. We expect buying on dips.
Yen lost ground, despite stocks losing ground overnight, which was bit of a surprise. We remain positive on Yen and there could be a test of 98.50 on the downside for USD-JPY. The main Resistance on the upside being at 100.40.
GBP-USD was the mover of the day yesterday as it has moved back above its 200-Day MA of 2.0145, to test a high of 2.0195. It has fallen back from there. There is no clear direction for the pair, and it is choppy within its wide range of 2.0200 and 1.9800.
Dollar Rupee is likely to open a bit firmer today, after the fall yesterday. The important data to watch today would be the weekly WPI number.
US Personal Income and the Core PCE Price Index for the month of Feb-08 would come out today, with the latter being the more important of the two. See the historical chart at
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