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Tuesday October 26, 2004 - 07:56:38 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies by John Hardy at Saxo Bank

USD sell-off overdone short term? EUR/USD may retrace to 1.2670/90

US Consumer Confidence on tap at 14:00 GMT.



October 26, 2004

Economic Data Today (all times GMT)

08:00 EuroZone Current Account (Aug)
08:00 Sweden PPI, Retail Sales (Sep)
11:00 Canada CPI (Sep)
14:00 US Consumer Confidence (Oct) - expected at 94.0


Market Commentary

After the unbelievable streak of nine consecutive higher closes, it appears that EUR/USD may finally be ready for a bit of consolidation in the next couple of days. The recent rally has brought a huge sentiment shift and that sentiment may need to cool its heels a bit before we can gear up for another push higher. The risk to this scenario is that there are undoubtedly a large number of traders that are establishing short positions below the 1.2900 high, and the thin markets that are likely up to the release of the US Consumer Confidence number today at 14:00 GMT might provide a tempting area for traders to goose any stops above 1.2850. In other words, we could see a rocky day of trading. As for the number itself, it is likely not to provide any huge surprises, as a downside move in confidence is already expected. Only a disappointment of more than a 2 or 3 points or upside surprise of the same margin will be cause for consideration. Upside surprise is the "surprise side".

The US election situation is endlessly fascinating - and the margins are razor thin. Many models are predicting a Bush victory, but apparently, history shows that the "undecideds" are more likely to cast their vote for the challenger. In such a close election, chalking up just a few more undecideds in the Kerry column in the models makes for a clear victory for the Democrat. This will be one very close election.


Technical Comments

EUR/USD - rallied as high as 1.2840 overnight, but has corrected back a bit this morning. EUR/USD may correct lower towards the first Fibonacci retracement area just below 1.2700. A deeper correction or surprisingly strong US confidence number could beat EUR/USD back even further to the 1.2620 area. Further out, EUR/USD looks to gather steam for a break through the 1.2900+ high seen earlier this year.

GBP/USD - GBP/USD tested as 1.8450 largely as expected, and has fallen a bit this morning. That fall may continue today and into tomorrow, with the 1.8320/10 area offering the first support. Further out, GBP/USD may charge higher once again, with the next resistance at 1.8775. Eventually, GBP/USD may look to challenge the 1.9100 top from February.

USD/CHF - dipped as low as 1.1925 this morning. If the USD pummeling takes a break today, USD/CHF may consolidate a bit back toward the 1.2100 area. But that would simply represent a consolidation in the new bear market for this currency pair. Further out, USD/CHF may see 1.1500.

USD/JPY - has come well off its lows around 106.25 yesterday. 107.00 offers some resistance. The JPY may have gotten a bit ahead of itself, and 107.00 may not hold, so USD/JPY may head back toward the 107.50 area before finding firm resistance.

EUR/JPY - did head higher yesterday and now looks in better technical shape for a rally to higher levels still if it can take out the 137.00 area. A break of that level could swing EUR/JPY through 137.50 and on to a challenge of the 139.00 top.

AUD/USD - just touched the 0.7500 level overnight. AUD/USD may head back a bit toward support around 0.7400, but may then be ready for a charge back through the top and on to the 0.7700 area.

USD/CAD - may be ready for a reasonably large consolidatory rally if oil prices continue to come off. 1.2300/20 could be an area to shoot for. Further out, USD/CAD may continue its descent to 1.2000.


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Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at http://www.saxobank.com/?id=193&Lan=DA&Au=2&Grp=6

 

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