increase overdone given risks to financial system and growth
Further upward potential for the
euro is limited
financial market crisis escalated again at the beginning of the Easter week
when Bear Stearns had
to be rescued. Equity markets suffered heavy losses and credit spreads widened
again substantially, pushing the US dollar down to new lows. USD-JPY plummeted,
hitting a trough of below 96; levels last seen for a few months in 1995. EUR-USD
made significant gains and rose over 1.59 for a short time.
then, the dollar has managed to regain some ground, particularly against the
yen: during the
last 9 trading days, the exchange rate has been hovering around 100. The dollar
was probably boosted by the fact that equity markets, andin particular
financials strengthened slightly, following the quarterly reports of Lehmann, Goldman
Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The dollarâ€™s rebound could also have been triggered
to some extent by profit-taking before the long Easter weekend. One of the main
reasons, however, was probably the Fedâ€™s decision â€śonlyâ€ť to cut the Fed funds
rate by the amount originally expected (still 75 basis points) to 2.25%, and to
combat the liquidity problem in the money marketby other means.
first the dollar had made a significant recovery against the euro too. Shortly
before the holiday weekend, EUR-USD had gone up to around 1.54 again. On the
night of Easter Monday, however, the
market turned round again. The euro firmed to about 1.58. And it looks as
though the single currency will close the week at this level â€“ just below the
peak â€“ too.
spate of divergent macroeconomic data from the EMU and the US
is one reason for the sustained strength of the euro. US
consumer confidence plummeted again in March from 76.4 to 64.5. The
Case-Shiller home price index shows sustained declines in house prices; in
January, prices were almost 11% lower than a year earlier. In February, new
homes sales dropped to 590,000. Sales figures have only been lower in February
1995 and during the 1990/91 recession. What is more, durable goods orders also
declined markedly again by 1.7% in February, indicating, amongst other things,
weak investment in machinery and equipment.
to the paltry figures from the US,
European business climate data were unexpectedly positive. The German ifo
business climate index improved for the third consecutive month. The manufacturing,
wholesale and construction industries all recorded increases, and retail sales,
which had soared in February, held up quite well. But not only the German
figures were favourable; upbeat data also came from from France
Furthermore, accelerating inflation in Germany
indicates that EMU inflation could possibly rise again in March.
president Jean-Claude Trichet took the same line in testimony to the European
on Economic and Monetary Affairs, emphasizing the ECBâ€™s commitment to contain inflationary
pressures. According to Mr Trichetâ€™s comments, all that is required from the ECB
at the moment is to ensure that banks get the necessary liquidity (i.e. by
making central bank funds available at the refi rate). But Mr Trichet did not
show any willingness to ease the constraints in the financial sector, or to
ward off spillover effects into other economic sectors, by cutting interest
a backdrop of hawkish comments from the ECB, improved economic data and higher inflation
rates, interest rate cut expectations have been priced out for the euro area.
Going by Eonia swaps, markets have reduced their rate cut expectations by
around 35 basis points to about 40 basis points (within the next 9 months)
compared to the first half of March. Deposit rates rose even more sharply,
mainly because risk premiums have been pushed up further due to the financial market
turmoil and the impending end of the quarter. During the course of March,
Euribor rates in all maturity segments from to 12 months rose by over 35
points to well over 4.70%.
our view interest rate increases in the euro area are exaggerated. It is right
that macroeconomic data and ECB comments are making interest rate cuts unlikely
for the time being. However, we do not see any signs suggesting that the
outlook for the euro area has fundamentally improved. On the contrary, the
global economic environment and the situation in the financial markets appear much
more serious today than a month ago. The signs that the US
is in a recession are increasing. Moreover, the constraints in the financial
system have got worse. A month ago, no-one could have envisaged an institution
like Bear Stearns packing up completely.
latest European economic indicators are remarkably robust, but things could
change quickly. The production figures show a sharp increase in output, whereas
new orders have been levelling off since last autumn. The ifoâ€™s strength is
based solely on assessments of the current situation. By contrast, business
expectations are now predominantly negative. Rising energy prices and the
appreciation of the euro are additional burdens.
this environment, we see very little upward potential for EUR-USD from its
present level. In the short term, however, the situation is uncertain: next
weekâ€™s economic data will probably confirm the impression of divergent
macroeconomic developments in the US
and the eurozone, but are not likely to have a significant impact on the
markets after last weekâ€™s substantial interest and exchange rate adjustments.
report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and
its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the
information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are
based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the
BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and
recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and
are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute
advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be
owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should
seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned
herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from
them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment
or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is
for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or
their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this
document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation
of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its
officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in
transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any
related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United
rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium- Wed --14:15 GMT-- US- Industrial Production
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Wed -- 15:00 GMT-- CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.