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Tuesday October 26, 2004 - 10:13:18 GMT
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Forex: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 10/26/2004

An unsurprisingly quiet session in Asia and Europe tonight as EUR/USD and USD/JPY consolidate their massive gains and dealers try to square up their positions. The soft eco-data from both regions offers dealers a small opportunity to cover some of the shorts they had to print during yesterday’s furious rally in which the euro gained 170 points, the yen 120 points and sterling 190 points. In Japan, the Small Business Confidence survey reported at 49.5 slightly lower than the 49.8 expected. The non-manufacturing component slipped to 48.5 – a new low for the year indicating that the economic situation on the ground may be worse than the market thinks. In Europe, the Current Account for August turns negative for the first time this year, registering at –€0.4Bn as exports stagnate while imports rise 4.2% mainly due to escalating oil prices.

While the eco data temporarily stalls the “anti-dollar” rally, jitters over the geo-political situation in the US persist. According to Bloomberg, “An AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll found that 60 percent of 1,000 voters, both Republicans and Democrats, said they were concerned the outcome of the election won't be clear on Nov. 3, and 48 percent said it's likely the results will be challenged in court.” Aside from the Gallup poll - which was the least accurate poll in the 2000 election - all other polls are showing a race that is narrowing to within basis points. The Rasmussen poll which is the only one to carry the results to a decimal point showed Bush 47.6%-Kerry 47.2% on October 24 and Kerry 48.4%-Bush 46.4% on October 25.

With the Presidential race so close less that a week from election day, the possibility of a legal conflict becomes more probable by the hour. Therefore, any negative eco data from Japan, Euro-land or UK this week will only serve a temporary reprieve for USD bulls, as greenback will remain hostage to political worries over the election which will hopefully be resolved conclusively on November 3rd.


FX Spot Overnight

- EUR loses the 2800 handle as Current Account prints negative
- JPY tries to challenge 107 but sold back to 106.80 in back and forth action
- GBP falls to 8370 as CBI data prints as weak as expected
- CHF stays below 1.2000 on strong demand

Upcoming Events

11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) CAD Consumer Price Index m/m (SEP) Expected 0.2%, Previous –0.2%
11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) CAD Consumer Price Index y/y (SEP) Expected 1.8%, Previous 1.9%
11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) CAD CPI Excluding Core 8 m/m (SEP) Expected 0.2%, Previous –0.2%
11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) CAD CPI Excluding Core 8 m/m (SEP) Expected 1.4%, Previous 1.5%
14:00GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Consumer Confidence (OCT) Expected 94.0, Previous 96.8

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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