Tuesday April 1, 2008 - 12:54:48 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 1-Apr-2008....1255 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
GBP-USD @ 1.9835/40... Mixed, 1.98 is crucial
R: 1.9880-900 / 1.9950
S: 1.9800 / 1.9750 / 1.9735
GBP has a sharp swing back in the last couple of hours and as a result EUR-GBP has taken a huge hit, in the last 4-hourly candle. For now GBP is now mixed from bearish earlier in the day. The Support was met at 1.9735 and since then a huge rally has been seen.
However, further upside is ruled out above 1.9900 for the day. We would like to sell such a rally, if seen. On the downside, we see strong Support at 1.9800-750, however below it we start to question the strength of the pair.
USD CHF @1.0062/67... Resistance overhead
R: 1.0070-80 / 1.0091 / 1.0122
S: 1.0040-30 / 1.0000 / 0.9950
As per our reading in the morning our Long at 1.0010 has seen profit at 1.0050.
For now there seems to be a mixed view. Since it has met strong Resistance near 1.0070-80, it might retrace down from here. On the other hand, while it sustains above 1.0030, the pair might again test the Resistance at 1.0070-80. If that is also broken then we could see 1.0122. Supports are at 1.0040-30, 1.0000 and 0.9950 if a slide from here is seen.
AUD-USD @ 0.9096/00 â€¦Test of 0.9030 likely
R: 0.9115-20 / 0.9148-58
S: 0.9085 / 0.9035 / 0.9018
After the RBA kept interest rates unchanged at 7.25% (please click on http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/aurba.shtml), this morning, Aussie has fallen a bit but has found Support in the region of 0.9080-76. We were expecting and still believe that a test of the Support region between 0.9035-15 is likely in the day. Supports in the region are in the form of a trendline joining the lows of 0.8511(22-Jan), 0.8954 (20-Mar) and 0.8978 (22-Mar) on the daily chart, which is at 0.9035 currently, and the Statistically projected Max Low at 0.9018.
Both the daily and the 4-hourly charts are bearish and we still hold the Short entered yesterday at 0.9128. The immediate Resistance is at 0.9115, and as we write the level is not yet giving way for a further rally. If it breaks, however we could see a test of 0.9148-58 (13-SMA on the 4-hourly and the 13-SMA on the daily as well) which is the next important Resistance region.
Short 10K @ 0.9128, TSL 0.9125, TP 0.9065
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