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Wednesday April 2, 2008 - 03:54:05 GMT
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FX Thoughts - Asian Morning BriefingsEQUITIES
Strong surge in Equities worldwide, led by the USA, the Dow closing 391.47 points higher at 12654.36. It is now coming close to the upper end of the range on the Daily Candles, as seen on http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/djiacandle.shtmlGiven that there are chances of the Dow rising past the 20-day MA soon (please take a look at the 2nd chart on http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/djiama.shtml), there seems to be room on the upside till 13000.
All Asian Stocks are up between 0.28% to 3.82%. Even Shanghai, which was on a long losing streak is up 2.69%. The Sensex too could move up to 16000 today, against a closing near 15,626.62 yesterday. Please click on
Gold (Comex June) fell to 876.30 yesterday on a resurgence in the Dollar and US stocks and currently trades near 889.20. The picture is not bright given that the market is trading below 920-900. For a more detailed report, please write to us at email@example.comCrude (Nymex May) was relatively more stable yesterday, falling to 99.50 before recovering to 102.50. Currently trades near 101.20.
The Euro fell to 1.5562 in the US session yesterday, after having failed to sustain a rise to 1.5897 on Monday. For the while, it has respected the BLUE trendline coming up from Feb-08 on the Daily Candles, but is trading below the RED trendline on the 3-day Candles. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/eurcandle.shtmlThe Euroâ€™s fall has been attributed to the $19Bln write-down by UBS.
Dollar-Yen has moved up to test 102.00 (high near 102.17 seen). We had anticipated a rise to 101. There is some Resistance at 102, but if that is broken, we could see 103 also.
USD-CHF has risen to a high near 1.0142 alongwith USD-JPY. Cable fell to 1.9729 yesterday and currently trades near 1.9781, below the crucial level of 1.98 mentioned yesterday. It is to be seen whether it is able to recover above 1.98 today or not. The Aussie too fell to 0.9031 and is currently trading near 0.9090
We would expect Dollar-Rupee to open a little lower near 40.05 and 40.00 could be seen today on the back of higher global equities and a higher Dollar-Yen.
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Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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