Wednesday April 2, 2008 - 12:44:05 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 2-Apr-2008....1245 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given
GBP-USD @ 1.9816/20...Mixed now
R: 1.9840 / 1.9875 / 1.99
S: 1.9740-25 / 1.9700 / 1.9600
The Support at 1.9740 has held and the market has moved up during the day. It is currently trading above 1.98. There is an important Resistance at 1.9860. A break beyond 1.9860 would turn the outlook bullish and the target of the rally then could be 2.00 in a couple of days. The bias is now totally mixed for the day.
The downside, it seems, is restricted to 1.9740-30, and much slide below it might not be possible. If it breaks, look to sell as the fall then might be sharp and sudden.
USD-CHF @ 1.0119/23...Holding cautious Long
R: 1.0160-70 / 1.0250 / 1.0355
S: 1.0100-80 / 1.0060-50 / 1.000
The pair has cooled off a bit after a short rally in the early Asian trade. The bias is still positive and we may add to Long, if significantly lower levels are seen. As things stand, even though the idea behind the trade is fine; the entry probably was a little hasty. The immediate Support is at 1.0089-100 and below that at 1.0060-50. We expect the Support at 1.0090 to hold, as it is the 21-SMA on the daily as well as the 8-SMA on the 4-hourly. The Resistances in sight are at 1.0160-70 and then near 1.0250.
Long USD 10K at 1.0150, SL 1.0060 (up from 1.0020), TP 1.0230
AUD-USD @ 0.9115/19...Not doing anything
R: 0.9131-40 / 0.9150 / 0.9185-95
S: 0.9100 / 0.9040 / 0.9000
Aussie has witnessed a gain against the USD just like all the other majors. For the day a lot depends on the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, which nowadays is closely watched as an indicator of the upcoming US NFP on Friday. There also remains much in the hands of the US Fed President Bernanke, who will speak today at 1330 GMT.
Aussie currently is mixed, however a break out above 0.9131, the 21-SMA on the 4-hrly, could possibly bring further bullish bias in the early US session. The immediate Support is at 0.9100. The downside is restricted by Support at 0.9035 for the day, on the trendline joining the lows of 0.8611(23-Jan), 0.8954 (20-Mar) and 0.8978 (22-Mar) on the Daily chart. This Support not breaking has led to the curent rally beyond 0.9100 today.
Not wanting to do anything at all for now.
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