Thursday April 3, 2008 - 12:59:30 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 3-Apr-2008....1255 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given
GBP-USD @ 1.9845/50 ...Bernanke bearish, USD Bullish!
R: 1.9835-50 / 1.9900 / 1.9950
S: 1.9800 / 1.9750 / 1.9725
A close above 1.9800 was seen on Cable yesterday and this brought a bullish bias back into the pair. However, today the Cable again saw a sharp dip to the levels of 1.9758. In retrospect it was a missed opportunity to buy. To see the Support at 1.9750 click at
Ben Bernankeâ€™s acceptance of the fact that US might face a recession has brought some strength in the Greenback. This seemingly strange phenomenon can be explained as follows - The market could have discounted this view already and so when the Fed chief turned bearish on the economy no one was surprised.
The other aspect is that now the Fed President is aware of the realistic view (to which he had closed his eyes earlier) and could act better now in order to avoid further damage in the economy.Thus a rally beyond 1.9900 might not be seen today. Dollar could possibly gain against all the majors in a few days to come. Strong Resistance could possibly be seen near 1.9831-50. We were bullish in the morning, however, we have changed our stance and are neutral now.
USD-CHF @ 1.0165/70 ...Not much Resistance above
R: 1.0180 / 1.0200 / 1.0250
S: 1.0150 / 1.0125 / 1.0100
USD-CHF has broken past an important resistance at 1.0165-70, from where it had retraced twice earlier. The break has been a reason to enter a Long. For now, it seems to be headed towards 1.0250. There isnâ€™t any Resistance between now and 1.0233. A break below 1.0150 would cast a minor doubt on the rally. Possibly it could also be another opportunity to buy.
Supports are at 1.0155, on the trendline joining the highs of 1.0251 (24-Mar) and 1.0166 (2-Apr). 1.0117-25 is the Support midway, however, the strongest Support is further lower, at 1.0100.
Long USD 10K at 1.0183, SL 1.0160 (up from 1.0100), TP 1.0233
AUD-USD @ 0.9105/09 ...Push Buy Order lower
S: 0.9084 / 0.9050
In the morning we had suggested that the Aussie was a definite buy on a dip. Indeed, the market has dipped during the day after having failed to sustain a rise past 0.9165. The important Support to watch now is 0.9050, which falls on the blue trendline on the Daily Candles on the following page
While this Support holds, the Aussie could move up, in line with the 3-day and Weekly Candles on the same page. A break below 0.9000, if seen, could target 0.8900.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 10K at 0.9070 (down from 0.9090), SL 0.9030 (up from 0.9020), TP Open
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