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Thursday May 13, 2004 - 22:43:08 GMT
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Dollar Strengthens as Producer Price Growth Accelerates


EURUSD

EURUSD drifted lower during the US session as the market digested a mixed batch of US data. While retail sales came in lower than expected (mainly due to reduced auto sales), record oil prices and accelerating producer prices continued to drive expectations of a Fed rate hike by this summer. April producer prices printed at 0.7% percent month-on-month, significantly higher than the 0.3% consensus estimate. Producer price growth has been steadily accelerating since February, led higher by surging energy prices. EURUSD kept a bid tone ahead of options expiries at 10am in New York, rising above 1.1850 before falling to an intraday low of 1.1770 shortly thereafter. Notably, above consensus Q1 GDP readings in Italy and Germany provided little support for the euro in London and into New York, possibly due to a lack of evidence of growing domestic demand in either GDP report.


USDCHF

The upside surprise in PPI led USDCHF higher in New York as the pair traded through 1.30 and made a run at 1.31 before coming off to around the 1.3020 level. Geopolitical event risk notwithstanding, CHF could remain offered against USD given the growing perception of Fed rate hikes sooner rather than later, fueled by higher inflation data; the market will be looking to Fridayís CPI numbers for confirmation. In an agreement with the EU, non-member Switzerland acquiesced to help facilitate EU resident savings taxation in exchange for a guarantee of Swiss banking secrecy. This compromise opens the way for Switzerland and the EU to begin preparations to sign a series of bilateral treaties involving taxation, trade, security and education.


GBPUSD

In the Asian and London sessions, GBPUSD gave back much of its Wednesday gains inspired by strong UK employment data and a hawkish BoE inflation report, while in New York, cable traded in roughly a 50-pip range, falling to a low of 1.1750 in the wake of the US PPI report before drifting higher to the 1.7620 level during the afternoon. With both central banks expected to tighten monetary policy, GBPUSD could remain range bound to lower medium term, given the marketís view of an earlier moving Fed. Stronger than expected CPI Friday could accelerate the trend downward, although all-time highs in crude oil and deteriorating US equity markets complicate the picture somewhat. The implicit gas tax on consumers and disappearing wealth effects from rising stocks at present preclude the need for rapid tightening.


USDJPY

USDJPY traded higher in London before consolidating during the New York session. The pair remained range bound between 114.20 and 114.70, trading near the top of the range by the end of day. Earlier in Japan the yen was dragged down by significantly weak machinery orders in March. While the market expected a reading between 4% - 5%, authorities reported a 3.2% drop, the second monthly fall in three months. The outlook for orders looks no less bleak as the government forecast a 3% drop-off this quarter. In light of Chinaís move to slow down its economy, Asian asset sales are becoming a predominant theme, helped along by record oil prices. Pressure on the yen further increased as the Nikkei sold off by nearly 3%. Traders will look to bid the dollar higher if Japanese equities continue to underperform. Next week sees the release of Q1 Japanese GDP.





 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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