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Wednesday October 27, 2004 - 01:01:53 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 27th October 2004

Price: ... 1.2745

Resistance: 1.2770 ... 1.2810 ... 1.2840 ... 1.2860
Support.....: 1.2745 ... 1.2725 ... 1.2685 ... 1.2645

Bias: Mainly sideways initially above 1.2685-95 and then below 1.2780-1.2810

Bullish: The peak at 1.2841 has encouraged us with our expectations for a pullback before the final rally to 1.2927-61. Today should see losses follow-through to 1.2685-95 initially but this should support for a choppy recovery back up to 1.2780 at least but below 1.2810. Thus only back above 1.2810 would threaten a retest of 1.2840 and only if broken would we look for extension to 1.2885-90 before lower.

Bearish: The rejection at 1.2841 is encouraging for our overall view. However, we feel any initial losses today should be limited by the 1.2685-95 area from where we anticipate a recovery to 1.2780. Thus on this recovery we feel a second selling opportunity will arise with potential for a test lower to 1.2645. However, we look for the 1.2645-50 area to hold. Further support is found at 1.2595.



Elliott Wave Comments:

October 26th 2004

With yesterday's direct break higher we have needed to re-assess the underlying wave structure. From the daily cycle image it can be seen that we are now cautiously looking at the chance that the move lower from 1.2385 to 1.1986 actually completed an irregular triangle from where we are seeing a further ABC pattern , the first Wave -a- ending at 1.2442 with Wave -b- at 1.2224. Extending this by 1.382 provides a target of 1.2854 and by 1.618 provides a target of 1.2961. We favor this as a test of the 1.2927 high in a multi-week Flat Correction. Within Wave -c- we feel that Wave (iii) should reach the 1.2840-60 area to be followed by a pullback to 1.2640-80 in Wave (iv).

October 27th 2004

The peak at 1.2841 was timely and does support our view for a Wave (iv) decline down to 1.2645-50.



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004

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