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Wednesday October 27, 2004 - 09:10:33 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies by John Hardy at Saxo Bank

USD may wilt again as EUR/USD focuses on 1.2900 top.

Latest polls show John Kerry gaining some steam.




October 27, 2004

Economic Data Today (all times GMT)

07:30 Sweden Consumer/Manufacturing Confidence (Oct)
08:30 UK Mortgage Lending Figures
12:30 US Durable Goods (Sep) expected at +0.5%
14:30 US Weekly Crude Inventories


Market Commentary

We saw the expected dip yesterday in EUR/USD, but USD may weaken further until Friday's GDP data. With expectations lowered by the poor US Consumer Confidence showing yesterday, the "surprise side" (the side that unleashes the most volatility) on Friday would be a strong number. Perhaps even an "as expected" number would hurt bonds and therefore aid the USD, at least temporarily. Until that release, however, things don't look so bright for the USD - and the recent rallies against the dollar look set to continue today and tomorrow.

On the presidential election front, an ABC/Washington Post poll out yesterday - the first major poll in a few days - shows Kerry with a slight advantage over Bush, which goes against the results from some of the other major polls. This election is going to be a nail-biter.


Technical Comments

EUR/USD - fell yesterday to the 1.2730 area. There is some risk of a further dip to 1.2700, but support may be forthcoming and EUR/USD may charge higher once more before the US GDP release on Friday - perhaps as high as the 1.2900 top or just beyond. Things may get a bit choppy from there, but EUR/USD has launched a new bull market that may carry it to 1.3000 and beyond some time after the US election next Tuesday.

GBP/USD - GBP/USD has so far survived a test of the 1.8320/00 area support and rallied just short of 1.8400. GBP/USD may charge higher once again after another test of support and break through the 1.8450 resistance for one surge higher before Friday. The next resistance comes in at 1.8775, though it may take some time before that level is attained. Eventually, GBP/USD may look to challenge the 1.9100 top from February.

USD/CHF - consolidated higher toward 1.2050. The consolidation may not be completely over with, as USD/CHF could edge toward the 1.2100 before finding firmer resistance and dipping back toward the 1.1925 low from yesterday. USD/CHF may turn volatile on Friday's US GDP report, but once through this and the Presidential Election, USD/CHF may fall to 1.15 in the coming weeks.

USD/JPY - has been nervous on the series of earthquakes hitting Japan. Consolidated once more toward 107.00 after making a stab at the 106.25 low from Monday. USD/JPY may consolidate a bit higher still if it breaks back through 107.10 (107.50 - 108.10) as the market frets about the Friday's US GDP release. Further out, the currency pair my find firm resistance and making a try for new lows post-US election. The initial target is 105.20.

EUR/JPY - simply cannot decide what to do as yesterday's massive drop was met with a quick uptick overnight. Trigger levels are 135.50 and 137.00. A break of 137.00 could swing EUR/JPY through 137.50 and on to a challenge of the 139.00 top.

AUD/USD - consolidated back toward 0.7430 in an orderly fashion and bounced sharply this morning. Another surge beyond 0.7500 and to perhaps 0.7620 may be in the wings before Friday's big US GDP release. Beyond the US presidential election (and after a likely bout of volatility just before and after that event) AUD/USD may go on to challenge the 0.8000 level once again.

USD/CAD - consolidated higher toward 1.2300 resistance, but has fallen again since then. Crude oil quickly found terra firma yesterday and USD/CAD may be ready for another descent to 1.2100 if oil stays bid and the USD is weak. Further out, USD/CAD may continue its descent to 1.2000.


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Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at http://www.saxobank.com/?id=193&Lan=DA&Au=2&Grp=6

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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