User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday April 4, 2008 - 15:36:45 GMT
BHF-Bank - www.bhf-bank.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Briefing - Growth weakness is spreading

FX Briefing 4 April 2008

Highlights

·        Economic upswing is losing momentum in the eurozone

·        IMF forecasts weak global growth and pushes for ECB interest rate cuts

·        But ECB Council set to leave rates on hold for now because of inflation risks
·         

Growth weakness is spreading

Foreign exchange markets remained volatile this week. The dollar had weakened at the end of lastweek, and this movement continued at first. USD-JPY dropped below 99 temporarily, whereas EUR-USD neared 1.59 again. Then, however, the latest economic indicators did not fully bear out the gloomy picture of the US economy which market participants had over the last few weeks. The ISM manufacturing index actually recovered somewhat to 48.6, and the ADP employment index showed a slight increase in private employment instead of the expected sharp decline. Later in the week, the ISM non-manufacturing index also went up a bit, to 49.6.

Given the markets’ pessimistic expectations, this glimmer of hope was probably enough to boost equity markets too. In this environment, the dollar made significant gains. USD-JPY firmed to around 103, whereas EUR-USD approached 1.55. Towards the end of the week, however, the US currency lost some ground again. This was probably partly due to the fact that the US labour market report was about to be published; employment figures are particularly uncertain, and on Thursday it was reported that initial jobless claims had risen sharply from 369 to 407k in the last week of March, which gave rise to increased concern again.

In March, annual inflation in the EMU went up to 3.5%, mainly due to energy and food prices. But ECB representatives are certain to have taken this into account when issuing their hawkish comments last week. Bundesbank president Axel Weber, for instance, had already announced a slight acceleration in inflation. Thus the news had little impact on the market.

Instead, the surprises in the eurozone were on the growth side. First and foremost here were German retail sales, which fell in price-adjusted terms as calculated by the Bundesbank (including cars and petrol stations) by 1.5% in February. The decline, which was the second in a row, was all the more surprising because the ifo institute had indicated a significant improvement in retail sales. Against this backdrop, sales in the euro area as a whole also came as a disappointment. There is no sign yet of private consumption picking up, quite the contrary in fact.

The EU Commission business and consumer climate survey results should also be borne in mind. In contrast to the German business climate figures, the EU Commission economic sentiment indicator fell in March; the decline was caused mainly by the construction and service sector and was most pronounced in Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. This is the first time since 2004 that this indicator has dropped below its long-term average. Furthermore, German industrial new orders also declined again in February, by 0.5% month-on-month, which was rather surprising compared to the development in orders according to ifo.

In our view, the latest eurozone economic data confirm that Europe’s economy is in fact slowing down. This will not have gone unnoticed by ECB monetary policymakers, who are meeting again next week to discuss policy. However, the latest data alone are not yet reason enough for the ECB to put less emphasis on inflation risks and to back down from its recently adopted more hawkish stance. It is practically out of the question that the ECB will cut interest rates at the forthcoming meeting, or even hint at doing so.

Although the ECB’s monetary policy position is clear for now, this does not rule out that the ECB might be somewhat more cautious in its growth outlook. The International Monetary Fund, whose latest forecasts will be officially presented next Wednesday, appears to be much more pessimistic in its growth forecast than the ECB. A month ago, the ECB staff had predicted that eurozone growth would be somewhere between 1.3 to 2.1% in 2008 (and between 1.3 and 2.3% in 2009); according to unconfirmed reports, the IMF estimates that GDP growth will only be 1.3% in 2008, and could slow down even further to 1.1% in 2009.

In view of the impending economic slowdown, the IMF will supposedly push for ECB interest rate cuts in the near future, despite higher inflation rates. Not much is known yet about the IMF’s arguments. However, we think the Monetary Fund is likely to point out the risks of a deeper recession in the US, which in combination with the credit crisis could lead to growth weakness spreading across the globe.

The IMF’s position is probably not all that different from that of the USA. Therefore the US representatives at the G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors could well try to involve the Europeans in their attempts to ease the credit crunch and stabilize economic growth. It will probably be difficult for the Europeans to refuse completely to comply with these requests, by arguing that the situation is different in Europe (high inflation, reasonable growth, no credit squeeze).

Forex markets in March were shaped by a dualistic world view: with a robust European economy and the ECB flying the flag for price stability on the one hand, and the Fed throwing all caution regarding price stability to the wind in order to rescue the banking system and support growth on the other. In this global scenario, the dollar fell to new lows. In our opinion, this dualism is likely to subside soon. In the last few days, the eurozone growth outlook has clouded over slightly. The same applies to Japan, where a clear indication has been given by the fact that the Tankan has deteriorated significantly. This trend will continue. The discussions in the run-up to the spring meeting of the IMF and the World Bank will highlight common risks within the global economy. In this environment, we expect the dollar to be firm for the most part.

Stephan Rieke +49 69 718-4114

Economics Department
+49 69 718-3642
volkswirtschaft@bhf-bank.com
Foreign Exchange Trading
devisenhandel@bhf-bank.com
Jörg Isselmann
+49 69 718-2695
Matthias Grabbe / Klaus Näfken
+49 69 718-2688

 

<i>This report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United States.

© 2007 BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft

All rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105