Monday April 7, 2008 - 13:06:26 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 7-Apr-2008....1300 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given
GBP-USD @ 1.9895/900 ...1.9900 is crucial
R: 1.9950-65 / 1.9975 / 2.0010
S: 1.9800-14 / 1.9760-75 / 1.9750-20
Cable is now testing an important Resistance at 1.99 on the 4-hrly (21-SMA) and on the hourly chart (21-SMA). If it holds, a dip towards 1.9800-25 could be seen. Otherwise on a rise past 1.9900 we could see a test of 1.9970.
Above that, 2.0014 is the Max High for the day.Supports are in the region of 1.9800-14, and 1.9760-75 below it. The Strongest Support is at 1.9720, which could possibly be tested on the day of the Interest rate decision.
It is difficult to say how much of the expected rate cut by the BOE (25bps cut to 5.00% from 5.25% earlier) is priced in by the market.
Short GBP 10K at 1.9875, SL 1.9950 (down from 1.9965), TP 1.9825
Sell GBP 10K at 2.0000, SL 2.0090, TP 1.9960
USD-CHF @ 1.0139/44 ...Resistance at 1.0180 held again
R: 1.0175 / 1.0200-18 / 1.0235-50
S: 1.0100 / 1.0070-60 / 1.0000
With 1.0180 holding as Resistance within the day once again, we now are not enticed to buy at 1.01. The sideways consolidation should now continue between 1.0180 and 1.0050 for another couple of days before breaking out.
The Resistance is now Strongly placed at 1.0180. Above it we see Resistance at 1.0220. Immediate Support is at 1.01. The stronger Support is at 1.0060, on the trendline joining the lows of 0.9871 (31-Mar) and 1.0015 (4-Apr) on the 4-hrly.
We would like to remove the Limit Buy order placed in the morning. Looking for a better opportunity.
AUD-USD @ 0.9246/50 ...Bullish for 0.9300+
R: 0.9266 / 0.9300 / 0.9350
S: 0.9230-08 / 0.9173-65 / 0.9120
There has been no dip in the Aussie since the time India came in after the initial dip following the worse than expected Trade Balance numbers
(please click on http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/autrbal.shtml)
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We had mentioned in the morning that the overall picture was bullish, with good Support from 0.9165 down to 0.9100. While these Supports hold, there is a decent chance of the Aussie rising towards 0.9300-50. Note that 0.9304 is the projected Max High for the day.
Not having seen an intra-day dip, we have bought into a subsequent rally and are currently holding a Long position. The market needs to remain above 0.9210 today in order to enable the targeted levels to be seen by today-tomorrow. In case there is a dip below 0.9200, we could see the 0.9165 Support being tested. If Support at 0.9165 also breaks, then a deeper fall towards 0.9190 could be seen.
AUD 10K Long at 0.9234, SL 0.9147, TP 0.9290
Limit Buy Orders:
Buy AUD 10K at 0.9165, SL 0.9075, TP 0.9269
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