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Wednesday October 27, 2004 - 12:39:11 GMT
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GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary for Wednesday, October 27, 2004

By Cornelius Luca, currencies analyst, Global Forex Trading (source: https://www.gftforex.com/resources/daily.asp?date=10272004)

The dollar settled in a tighter range due to some profit taking on Tuesday after surging in the previous to days. The sentiment for the dollar remains negative ahead of the US elections, but choppy trading should now prevail. On Wednesday, will focus on the release of the volatile Durable Goods Orders report, New Home Sales report and on the Beige Book report for the FOMC meeting on November 10.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar edged lower on Tuesday but there is little reason to expect its recent strength to cease.

Only a close below 1.2710 would signal that the uptrend is over, and the pair would fall to 1.2660 and even sink to the area between 1.2600 and 1.2570. However, such an aggressive decline remains unlikely.

Above 1.2800, the pair sees resistance at the 1.2840 peak and then at 1.2895. A break above the latter level would provide further confidence to this uptrend and the euro/dollar would then target 1.2926. Distant resistance looms at 1.3050 and then in the 1.3100 area.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen is chipping away at its losses after collapsing on Monday to 106.20, a new low for its downtrend. The pair should remain should try to push higher today but remained within Mondayís range.

Below 106.60, there is a pivotal support at 105.94 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Key support remains at 105.60, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 105.10 and 106.10.

The pairís recovery was helped by the break above the 50-point pivot at 106.75, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Above 107.25, resistance comes at 107.80 and then at 108.40.

Oscillators are heading lower.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar slipped from 1.8448, but its pullback on profit taking is not strong enough to stop the pairís ascent to the target of a medium-term double bottom formation at 1.8600. There is now an anchor level at 1.8365 from a Fibonacci retracement level.

Any further decline will face good support at 1.8280 and a break lower would mean that the rally is over and the pound will fall to 1.8200. Further support is at 1.8165 and 1.8110.

If it resumes its strength, sterling/dollar will retest the 1.8448 top and face an intermediary resistance level from the pivotal peak at 1.8464. A break above this pivotal peak would signal a test of 1.8511. Distant resistance remains at 1.8769.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss is struggling to chip away at its losses after hitting a multi-year low of 1.1924.

If it can recover further, dollar/Swiss franc will face resistance at 1.2135. Only a break above 1.2150 would signal a more sustainable recovery and the pair would then challenge 1.2210 and possibly even 1.2265.

Below 1.1972, support now comes at 1.1900 and a break below this level would signal a slide to 1.1842. Distant support remains at 1.1790.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




 

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