Tuesday April 8, 2008 - 03:48:09 GMT
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FX Thoughts -Asian Morning Briefings
GOOD MORNING! EQUITIES
The Dow closed flat (up 3.01 points at 12612.43), the Nasdaq closed with minor losses (down 6.15 points at 2364.83). The Dow has been moving sideways for the last four days. It has an important â€śrange resistance at 12743. This may not break and even if it does, gains might be limited to 12950. A failure to rise past 12743 in the near term could bring the Dow down towards 12100-11900. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/djiacandle.shtmlAsian stocks are all in the red today, trading between â€“0.18% (Taiwan) to â€“1.01% (Korea). The Nikkei is trading down 0.93% lower. The major Resistance pointed out yesterday seems to have held and a fall towards 12000 and lower could now unfold. Please take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nikkeicandle.shtmlThis could well have a negative impact on Dollar-Yen.
The Sensex too could open lower near 15600 today.
Gold moved up to 933.70 yesterday and currently trades near 928. The rise past 925 yesterday brings serious doubt on (our) bearish expectations. Instead, a rise towards 940-950 could now be seen. Crude too has moved up to near 109.
It seems that the worldâ€™s investible surplus (read petrodollars) is being funneled into commodities and the NEW hard currency, the Euro.
The Euro has moved up well after yesterdayâ€™s low near 1.5626. It currently trades near 1.5780 and could be headed up towards 1.59. Dollar-Yen has found Resistance at 102.98-88 over Friday-yesterday and is trading lower near 102.15. Given the possible bearishness in Nikkei, and the strong Resistance at 103.00, Dollar-Yen could head lower towards 101-100. Take a look at the USDJPY charts here:
Euro-Yen (currently 161.17) rose above the 200-day MA (161.20). If it can sustain the gains, a further rise towards 163-164 could be seen.
Dollar-Swiss trades flat near 1.01, within a sideways range of 1.0000-1.0215.
The Pound too is trading a little stronger, in line with the Euro and could, possibly move up to test Resistance at 2.00. Essentially, it is currently trading in the middle of a 2.00-1.98 range ahead of the BOE meeting on Thursday, where a 25bp cut is expected. The Aussie is maintaining gains above 0.9250 and could head up towards 0.9300 today. It is currently near 0.9265.
Dollar-Rupee opened near 39.95 and is currently trading near 40.0150. A test of 40.10 is possible over today-tomorrow.
In the week there are 3(three) Central Bank Meetings Scheduled.
9-Apr-08 (Wednesday) -
05:00 GMT BOJ Meeting
...Exp 0.50% ...Prev 0.50%
11:00 GMT GMT BOE Mtg
...Exp 5.00% ...Prev 5.25%
11:45 GMT E-15 ECB Announcement
...Exp 4.00% ...Prev 4.00%
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