Wednesday April 9, 2008 - 04:02:55 GMT
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FX Thoughts - Asian Morning Breifings
GOOD MORNING! EQUITIES
The Dow remains flat yesterday. It closed 0.29% lower at 12576.44. Asia is mixed again, trading between â€“1.06% (Korea) to +0.84% (Taiwan). Shanghai is down 0.95%. The Sensex is bracing for a large move, either up towards 16500, or down towards 14500 over the next couple of weeks. Take a look at
IMF announced it would be selling Gold to the extent of roughly 400 tonnes. This had triggered a slight dip in Gold, but importantly it closed above at $918. A close below $915 could have triggered a bigger fall. The market now feels the sell off could be absorbed well. However, the feel has not changed much, at $917.90 currently, Gold remains mixed between $900-940 for a couple of days. For a detailed analysis write to us at [email protected]
Crude, after hitting a high of $109.64 yesterday, is currently at 108.77. Commodities could cool off a bit on grounds of a slight strength in dollar, this is a view that all would not bet for.
The Pound crashed to a low near 1.9665 yesterday after a surprisingly bearish Halifax housing data (its biggest fall in 15 years) gave rise to talk of a 50bp rate cut by the Bank of England in its forthcoming meeting on Thursday. A further fall towards 1.9500 seems to be on the cards now. The Euro followed the Pound lower, to 1.5674 (it had earlier been trading near 1.5780). The picture now looks completely mixed up between 1.56-1.58, ahead of the ECB meeting, which is also scheduled for Thursday.
For charts on the BOE and ECB rates, please click on
Before that, the Bank of Japan meeting is underway today. A Governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, has finally been appointed. No change is expected in the 0.5% rate. For a chart, please click on
A rally towards 103.60 is possible today, as compared to the current level of 102.52.
The Aussie has more or met its target of 0.9325 yesterday and is seeing a small pullback currently, trading near 0.9300. Yesterdayâ€™s news of Gold sales by the IMF has not hurt the Aussie, which can be imagined at 0.9390 next week.
Dollar-Swiss continues to trade sideways. Currently near 1.0145.
Dollar-Rupee has opened near 40.01 and is expected to remain quiet between 39.90-40.10 for another couple of days.
Our Quarterly Long-Term Dollar-Rupee forecast is ready. To order a copy, please write to [email protected] or call us at 00-91-33-24892010 / 12
05:00 GMT BOJ Meeting
...Exp 0.50% ...Prev 0.50%
11:00 GMT GMT BOE Mtg
...Exp 5.00% ...Prev 5.25%
11:45 GMT E-15 ECB Announcement
...Exp 4.00% ...Prev 4.00%
G7 meeting in Washington scheduled for Friday, 11-Apr-08.
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