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Thursday April 10, 2008 - 17:18:41 GMT
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U.S. Market Update

U.S. Market Update

Dow +95 S&P +10 NASDAQ +34

- Indices are posting some moderate gains after two straight down sessions. Weekly initial jobless claims helped todays sentiment by falling to 357K after last weeks spike above 400K. Retailers rose despite soft March same-store sales, as traders focused in on a surprisingly stonger outlook. WMT COST and FDO indicated the low end consumer is holding in despite crude at $110. Higher end markets received to boost when the TIF President indicated he still expects a rebound in its
U.S. business in the second half and will be following through with expansion plans. Advancers are handily beating declinere within the goup pushing the RTH up 2% on the day.

- Biotech and pharmaceutical names rose this morning on FDA approval for HITK's glaucoma generic and encouraging results from TEVA's Copaxone trials. Millennium Pharmaceuticals agreed to be bought out by Takeda for $25/shr in a $8.8B deal buyout. GENZ was also up, despite announcing that it had voluntarily recalled three lots of its thymoglobulin product. BBH +3%, approaching highs for 2008.

- Financials opened lower this morning on the WSJ article highlighting Lehman Brother's disclosure it has liquidated three investment funds. The financials reversed course in late morning trade after Lehman rallied more than $2 from session lows to move into positive territory.

- AMR canceled another 900 flights this morning, or approx 40% of its daily total of 2,300 flights, after making only slight progress in getting its 300 MD-80s flying again. Yesterday after the close the airline said it had so far found no safety issues with the aircraft, projecting that operations would return to normal on Saturday.

- Yahoo turned to arch-rival Google for help fending off Microsoft yesterday, announcing that it would display GOOG ads on its search results in a two- week trial. MSFT responded by calling the potential alliance anticompetitive.

- As equity markets have run to new highs Treasury prices have retreated sending yields back above some key levels. The10- year yield has gone back above 3.50% and two year is above 1.75%.

- Currencies have been hit by a whirlwind of news, data and decisions with broad implications for increasing FX volatility. Overall, inflation concerns remained the dominant theme ahead of tomorrow's G7 meeting in
Washington, DC.

- The ECB held interest rates steady at 4.00%, as expected. ECB Chief Trichet maintained his hawkish tone during the post- decision press conference, adding little new in terms of actual substance. Trichet did note that the ECB Council's sentiment has remained the same as the March policy meeting, warning market speculators that any other interpretation was simply false. He also stated that verbal discipline on FX is “of the essence” and reiterated that excessive FX volatility is undesirable. He concluded by indicating that US authorities believe a strong dollar is in their country's best interest. The EUR/GBP hits fresh all-time highs at 0.8030 (the ECB implied that the BoE doesn't welcome FX volatility either). EUR/USD hit fresh all-time highs at 1.5914 ahead of the ECB rate decision before settling back at 1.5820 area after seeing little change from earlier hawkish central bank speak.

- The GBP recovered from session lows after the BoE lowered the key rate by 25bps, as expected. The bank noted it sees some inflationary concerns in the coming months, but was confident that the 2.0% target will be met in 2009.

- The JPY was broadly firmer through the trading day after the Singapore Central Bank applied an “upward shift” to its currency band in order to fight inflation. This move was geared to spur the appreciation the
Singapore dollar. Other Far Eastern currencies firmed as well in the aftermath of the central bank action, led by the yen. USD/JPY probed below the 100 level, EUR/JPY was off almost 200 pips at 159.20 and GBP/JPY was lower by 160 pips at 199.20. Unwinding of carry-related crosses also benefiting the JPY as some concerns resurfaced about the finance sector. Overnight press coverage of LEH and MER provided enough reason to take the European bourses lower by 1.7% during the US morning. CHF also benefiting from the risk aversion as it firms over 100 pips in the EUR/CHF cross at 1.5750 level

- USD/CAD maintains its current consolidation range of 1.01 to 1.03 and showed little momentum to CAD trade data or energy prices in the session.

- There were a few other interest rate surprises as both the Icelandic and South African central banks raised rates by 50 bps each to combat inflationary concerns.

- European fixed-income futures were broadly firmer as elevated energy prices will impede global economic growth. June Bunds +56 ticks at 115.48 and June Gilts +47 ticks at 110.31

Euro-Stoxx 50 index -1.1% at 3,732; FTSE -0.8% at 5,934; CAC-40 index -1% at 4,825 and DAX -1% at 6,654


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

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