European Market Update: UK CPI & RPI Fall Shy; German ZEW Unexpectedly Declines
Â· *** ECONOMIC DATA ***
Â· FR Mar CPI: M/M 0.8% v 0.6%e || Y/Y 3.2% v 3. 0%e
Â· FR Mar CPI Harmonized: M/M 0.8% v 0.6%e || Y/Y 3.5% v 3. 3%e
Â· FR Mar CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 117.46 v 117.3e
Â· IT Mar Final CPI: M/M 0.5% v 0.5%e || Y/Y 3.3% v 3.3%e
Â· IT Mar Final CPI Harmonized: 1.6% v 1.6%e || Y/Y 3.6% v 3.6%e
Â· UK Mar CPI: M/M 0.4% v 0.6%e || Y/Y 2.5% v 2.6%e || Core Y/Y 1.2% v 1.3%e
Â· UK Mar RPI: M/M 0.3% v 0.5%e || Y/Y 3.8% v 3.9%e || Ex-Mort. Y/Y 3.5% v 3.
Â· UK Mar Retail Price Index: 212.1 v 212.5e
Â· UK Feb DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: 6.7% v 7.4%e
Â· SP Jan Current Account: -â‚¬11.9B v -â‚¬9.3B prior
Â· GE Apr ZEW Economic Sentiment: -40.7 v -30. 0e
Â· GE Apr ZEW Current Situation: 33.2 v 32.8e
Â· EU Apr ZEW Economic Sentiment: -44.8 v -33.0e
Â· *** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***
Â· ECB's Trichet: Swift implementation of G7 goals crucial || No effort being
spared to tackle the crisis || Must prevent system from feeding on itself ||
Contagion from U.S. housing trouble has made clear how vulnerable the financial
system is || We are in a period of high uncertainty where risks are hard to
quantify || Shadow banking system rested on false perception of perpetually
rising asset prices || Inflation is "certainly a problem" || Won't
say anything new on monetary policy || Sticks to what he said at G7 about
concerns about sharp currency fluctuations
Â· ECB's Ordonez: The ECB is always more concerned with inflation || Sees
Spanish economy in a change of cycle || Sees Euro-Zone inflation approaching 2%
in 2H of 2008
Â· ECB's Stark: Cannot be sure if current interest rate stance is appropriate ||
Believes that it is appropriate for the moment || Upside risks to inflation
prevail || No choice to accommodate first round effects, do not pose risks to
price stability || ECB will act decisively on any spillover
Â· SW Finance Minister Borg: Forecasts 2008 GDP growth of 2.1%, and 2009 GDP
growth of 1. 8% ||Sees repo rate steady through 2009 at 4.25%
Â· ZEW Economist: Inflationary pressures dampened German sentiment || German GDP
growth of 1. 7% is still realistic in 2008 || ECB might switch course to cut
rates || 50% of respondents see 2008 ECB rate cut, down from 60% last month
Â· Icelandic Finance Minister Thorgeirsson: Icelandic banks' problems are more
image than substance
Â· *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Â· In equity news overnight, Genentech (DNA) and Biogen Idec (BIIB) announced
that results from a phase II/III clinical trial of Rituxan in
primary-progressive multiple sclerosis did not meet their primary endpoint. The
companies will continue to analyze the study results and will submit the data
for presentation at an upcoming medical meeting. Delta Airlines (DAL) and
Northwest Airlines (NWA) agreed to merge in an all-stock transaction valued at
$17.7B. Under the terms Northwest holders will receive 1.25 Delta shares/share,
representing a 16. 8% premium based on yesterday's closing price.
Â· On the earnings front, Burberry (BRBY.UK) reported 2H revenues slightly ahead
of expectations, and 2H same-store-sales growth of 6% y/y. UK retailer Tesco (TSCO.UK) beat out
analyst expectations for 2007 with Revenues of Â£47.3B, and net income of
Â£2.12B. UK retailer Debenhams (DEB.UK) reported a
y/y decline for its 1H net income, as well as a 20bps decline in gross margins,
and a 0.7% decline in same-store-sales. Skyepharma (SKP.UK) reported overnight
that a study in pediatric Flutiform in asthma met its primary endpoint.
Â· In the newspapers, the WSJ's Heard on the Street is Cautious on shares of
Nintendo (NTDOY) noting that some analysts believe that Nintendo's best years
of growth have passed, adding that results may also be impacted by the US economic slowdown. The FT followed up on
the previously reported plan by Citigroup (C) to sell $12B in leveraged loans
noting that the bank is allowing private equity groups bidding for the assets
to cherry pick from a wide range of assets with different prices and credit
ratings. According to the Telegraph, a Chinese sovereign wealth fund has built
up a stake of about Â£1B in British Petroleum (BP). The stake represents less
than 1% of shares outstanding According to the WSJ, the Government of Singapore
Investment Corp is "very seriously considering" participating in
UBS's (UBS) $15B rights offering. The sovereign wealth fund bought a 9% stake
in UBS in December. In an article that cites the company's Chief Medical
Office, the Seattle Post Intelligence reported that: Dendreon (DNDN) will
progress with Neuvenge in breast cancer therapy later in 2008. The article also
notes that that the company expects to release positive data about its lead
prostate cancer treatment, Provenge, later in 2008. According to the FT,
Deutsche Bank (DB) has sped up the sale of â‚¬36B worth of leveraged debt. The FT
noted that Deutsche Bank has been steadily selling some of its leveraged loans
since August, and that the sale process was accelerated last month as the price
of many of the loans increased following the bailout of Bear Stearns. [Remember
that on 4/13 the WSJ said that DB is looking to sell as much as $20B of LBO
related debt to a group of investors] According to the Telegraph, one of
Barclay's (BCS) SIVs fell into receivership after the value of its assets
declined. Accounting firm Deloitte & Touche was hired as a receiver for the
Â· In fixed income Italy sold â‚¬1.95B in 4.25% August 2013 bonds
with an average yield of 3.99% and a bid-to-cover of 1.5x, as well as â‚¬2.0B in
4. 25% August 2014 bonds with an average yield of 4.05%, and a bid-to-cover of
1.64x. The WSJ is running an article about the performance of government-
sponsored enterprises [Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)] could have a
direct impact on the US economy and the US' credit standing. The article notes that,
according to an S&P report, government-sponsored enterprises enjoy implicit
government guarantees and could cause the US to lose its sterling triple-A rating if
the government were forced to come to their rescue. The WSJ is also running an
interesting article by Harvard professor Martin Feldstein about the recent Fed
interest rate cuts. Feldstein ultimately argues that the benefits of recent
rate cuts are likely to be small when compared to the potential damage.
Japanese insurer Nippon Life Insurance announced overnight that, in an attempt
to boost returns, it plans to buy Â¥400B corporate debt, asset backed
securities, and government bonds. JP Morgan asset's Donohue said overnight that
he sees an ECB rate cut this year. Donohue added that JP Morgan Assets may sell
treasuries and buy European debt.
Â· In currencies overnight, the GBP was under pressure throughout the European
session after the release of RICS House Prices during Asian hours. The -78.5
reading for March was the lowest ever for this data series in its 30 year
history. Additional downside momentum for GBP was enacted after the March CPI
and RPI data , which came in below consensus. The EUR/GBP proceeded to hit
all-time highs of 0.8065 before retracing 15 pips. The EUR/USD continued to
hover near its all-tie highs against the USD as continued hawkish ECB
overshadowed the economic releases. Aside from the GBP, the USD maintaining a
soft tone as new highs in crude futures continue to be made and firmer metal
prices. The JPY is mixed ahead of the dealer note that the S&P equity index
is moving into that part of the quarter where bank earnings are announced. Thus
concerns over the health of the financial sector will influence the risk
aversion currency plays.
Â· As we stand now the European indices are currently mixed, with the FTSE 100
outperforming. The slightly weaker than expected reading on CPI data in the UK
added some upside momentum to long- gilt and short-sterling futures which are
outperforming their European counterparts. The weaker than expected German Zew
expectations hit the European indices and the S&P futures (SPY) pretty
hard, initially pushing both the Dax and the Euro-Stoxx 50 into negative
territory. The data took European fixed income futures off of session lows, but
was not enough to push them into positive territory.
Â· Looking ahead, early focus will fall upon earnings results from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Forest Laboratories (FRX),
Regions Financial (RF), State Street (STT), and US Bankcorp (USB)Â¸ all of which
are expected to report in the pre-market. On the data front March PPI data is
due in the US at along with April empire manufacturing,
and will be followed by February net TIC flows data at . The NAHB housing market index for April
is due out at today. In central bank speak the ECB's Trichet and Weber are
scheduled to speak in Frankfurt at . After the close earnings reports are expected from Washington
Mutual (WM), CSX Corp. (CSX), and Intel (INTC).
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a
product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is
for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment
advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed
reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete
2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be
delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread,
misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are
willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6.
Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing
additional information. Trade The News is not liable
(financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities
involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a
regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium- Wed --14:15 GMT-- US- Industrial Production
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Wed -- 15:00 GMT-- CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.