Friday October 29, 2004 - 01:16:34 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 29th October 2004 Price: ... 1.1996
1.2026 ... 1.2045 ... 1.2070 ... 1.2095
1.1970 ... 1.1950 ... 1.1923 ... 1.1885
While 1.2026-45 holds (max 1.2070) we look for losses to resume to the 1.1835-55 area at least
The rejection from just below our 1.2145 retracement target encourages the bearish view and thus we place any bullish stance on hold. The short term stucture is a little clouded and there may be a small chance of seeing a move to 1.2026-45 (max 1.2070) and only above this higher area would therefore imply gains could develop back to 1.2135-45 once again. Breach of this level would trigger stronger gains to 1.2255-65.
Price faltered just below our 1.2145 retracement target and keeps the bearish view intact. We now require a break below 1.1964-74 and then 1.1923 to keep the downward momentum continuing towards the target area in the 1.1835-55 area. This eventual target is getting a little shrouded and while we feel there is a good chance of a reversal around here we also acknowledge a minor risk of follow-through to 1.1750-70 before the move lower completes.
Elliott Wave Comments:
October 26th 2004
With the break of 1.2080-00 we have been forced to reconsider the entire structure. From the daily cycle image is can be seen that we have adjust the labeling of the sideways move following the 1.2203 low which we feel resembles a triangle. The end of this is a little ambiguous but Fibonacci relationships tend to support a count that has the 1.2682 high as the completion of Wave (e) of Wave (B) from where we need to measure a five-wave move lower. We feel that the 1.1905-36 area could well mark the end of Wave (iii) and should allow a correction back to 1.2100-50 in Wave (iv) before losses down to target at 1.1835-55. Further support is found at 1.2725-50.
October 28th 2004
With the recovery to 1.2100 thus far we anticipate a full 50% correction to the Wave (iii) decline from 1.2365 to 1.1923 at 1.2145. This should complete Wave (iii) and generate losses that should reach the weekly expanded flat correction target at 1.1885 (23.6%) and possibly 1.1835. We remain cautous though with a daily target also implied at 1.1750 which matches with a 38.2% expanded flat correction.
October 29th 2004
Our view appears to be on target with the 1.2130 high appearing to form the peak of Wave (iv) from where we now see downside to the weekly expanded flat projection at 1.1885 at least and possibly the 1.1835 or even 1.1750 daily target.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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