Sunday October 31, 2004 - 03:08:45 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 1st November 2004 Price: ... 1.8375
Resistance: 1.8380 ... 1.8400 ... 1.8445 ... 1.8470
Support....: 1.8355 ... 1.8335 ... 1.8315 ... 1.8275
While 1.8315-35 holds we are bullish to 1.8440-50 at least
We remain bullish for now but feel more cautious about expecting a direct rally to the 1.8525-35 target. For now we look for 1.8335 to support (max to 1.8315) and for gains to make their way up to the 1.8440-50 peak. However, caution is advised at this level which we see as risking a reversal lower once again. Only a break of 1.8450 would allow gains to extend towards the 1.8525-35 target area.
Gains have been seen and we feel for now these should continue. However, should these develop by seeing a move to the 1.8400-10 area initially and then up to 1.8440-50 following a small correction, then we would consider the 1.8440-50 area as providing a peak. From this area a move back below 1.8380-00 would assist lower with next major support seen at 1.8280-90.
Elliott Wave Comments
29th October 2004
We feel that yesterday's low at 1.8192 forms the base of Wave [iv] and thus we are now seeing Wave [v] develop. If we take pure Fibonacci projections for this we see possible targets at 1.8630 (0.618 projection) and 1.8730 (0.764 projection). However, looking at the daily chart - if the daily triangle scenario is correct we have a target for Wave -d- at 1.8520. We tend to prefer this scenario.
1st November 2004
While the recovery from the 1.8192 level is encouraging and may suggest that Wave [v] is under development, we note from the internal structure of the rally that there is risk that 1.8192 represented only Wave [a] of Wave [v] and thus there is a risk of a peak in the 1.8440-50 area once again. This should limit trading to the 1.8185-1.8450 area for another few days yet. Any break of 1.8450 woiuld imply direct gains in Wave [v] to the 1.8525-35 area at least with an alternate scenario calling for 1.8600-30 before peaking.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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