User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday November 1, 2004 - 21:49:20 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Cautious Dollar Trading Ahead Of Election Day

DailyFX Forex Fundamentals 11-01-04

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

· Cautious Dollar Trading Ahead Of Election Day
· Weaker US and Eurozone Manufacturing Sector Data
· Disappointments In Japanese Data Boosts Dollar-Yen


The market has fully turned its attention to the US Presidential Elections with less than 36 hours until the announcement of the final results. With a lot of position squaring, speculation and no clear leader at this point, we see two possible knee-jerk reactions in the currency markets on Tuesday night / Wednesday morning. Regardless of who wins, an uncontested victory by any one party will most likely result in a relief rally for the US dollar. A risk premium has been attached to dollar denominated assets over the past few weeks, as the possibility of a drawn out debate and legal battle following the elections becomes more of a reality. If there is no clear winner, then we could see a continuation of the dollar sell-off as uncertainty persists for a longer period of time. Given that results will be announced during the generally thinner Tokyo trading session, expect a pronounced amount of volatility as the results come in. The last swing state (Oregon) will be closing polls at 11pm EST, however the last battleground state (Iowa) will be closing polls at 10:00pm EST. Although, we still remain convinced that the dollar will continue to weaken against the euro because of the persistent deficit concerns, a knee-jerk dollar rally seems more likely over the short term. Meanwhile the manufacturing sector in Europe continued to weaken. The pace of expansion slowed in Germany, France and Italy with new orders, employment and output declining, confirming that rising oil prices have continued to take a toll on the entire sector.


Weaker US data left the dollar unfazed as the market held its breath ahead of Election Day. However, the significance of today’s data should not be overlooked. Personal consumption outpaced personal income during the month of September, which barring some volatility in the data remains the broad trend since the beginning of the year. The PCE report came in right in line with expectations, while construction spending and the ISM manufacturing survey proved to be disappointments. Construction spending was flat in the month of September while the ISM survey dipped from 58.5 to 56.5. Most alarming to us though was the pullback in the employment component, which fell from 58.1 to 54.8. There were deeper retracements in the employment component of the Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing surveys. The optimistic +175k non-farm payrolls consensus estimate is based upon an adjustment of hurricane related disruptions that we saw in the month of September. According to state employment reports, hurricane disruptions are expected to have drained 40k-60k jobs last month. We still believe that estimates remain overly optimistic, leaving the market disappointed once again.


Despite stronger than expected manufacturing sector data, the British pound sold off in lockstep with the euro. The CIPS purchasing managers index increased from 52.2 to 53.0, breaking its downward streak. Solid gains were seen in the new orders, employment and prices components. This however, does not change our forecast for the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged next Thursday. The housing market has slowed considerably, industrial production contracted during the month of August, while inflation has fallen. Although retail sales remains healthy and the labor market remains tight, the effects of the central bank’s 125bp rate hikes since last November is still working its way through the economy. With GDP growth slowing from 0.9% to 0.4% qoq in the third quarter, there is not a strong reason for the BoE to be proactive at this point.


Weaker Japanese economic data has helped the dollar recoup some of its losses against the Japanese yen. Labor cash earnings on an annualized basis and bonuses fell during the month of September while vehicle sales decreased –7.0% in October. Today is another clear example of the decoupling of oil prices and the Japanese yen. Crude prices fell over a $1.50 today, as the yen gave back some of its recent gains. Meanwhile according to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Japanese think tanks predict growth to increase by an annualized rate of 2% between July and September. This is an acceleration from the 1.3% growth between April and June. Improving business sentiment, labor market conditions, and production are supporting evidence for their predictions.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105