Tuesday November 2, 2004 - 00:45:57 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 2nd November 2004 Price: ... 1.8335
Resistance: 1.8370 ... 1.8390 ... 1.8411 ... 1.8437
Support....: 1.8310 ... 1.8295 ... 1.8250 ... 1.8215
Mixed but with a slightly bearish bias
Reversal occurred from the lower 1.8411 level but does support our expectations of a larger sideways consolidation. We therefore look at the 1.8370-90 area as a cap now and look for buying opportunities around 1.8250 and probably 1.8215. Thus look to buy in this lower area or on an earlier break above 1.8411 which would then imply follow-through to 1.8450 and probably the 1.8525 level.
With failure at the 1.8411 level yesterday it does appear to confirm our suspicion of a short sideways to lower consolidation. Any test of 1.8370-90 would provide an excellent selling opportunity for a loss down to 1.8250 at least and we suspect to 1.8215. However, only a break here would begin to threaten the 1.8185-95 area where breach would be bearish for 1.8155 and probably to 1.8055.
Elliott Wave Comments:
29th October 2004
We feel that yesterday's low at 1.8192 forms the base of Wave [iv] and thus we are now seeing Wave [v] develop. If we take pure Fibonacci projections for this we see possible targets at 1.8630 (0.618 projection) and 1.8730 (0.764 projection). However, looking at the daily chart - if the daily triangle scenario is correct we have a target for Wave -d- at 1.8520. We tend to prefer this scenario.
1st November 2004
While the recovery from the 1.8192 level is encouraging and may suggest that Wave [v] is under development, we note from the internal structure of the rally that there is risk that 1.8192 represented only Wave [a] of Wave [v] and thus there is a risk of a peak in the 1.8440-50 area once again. This should limit trading to the 1.8185-1.8450 area for another few days yet. Any break of 1.8450 woiuld imply direct gains in Wave [v] to the 1.8525-35 area at least with an alternate scenario calling for 1.8600-30 before peaking.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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