Thursday May 1, 2008 - 09:54:43 GMT
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FX Blog- Market Snapshot Europe Mid-Session 1 May 2008
GVI Market Snapshot- Europe Mid-Session
- The outlook for the USD has improved from late Wednesday following a â€śsell the factâ€ť response to the FOMC decision. With the dust having now settled, the tone of the currency has improved. The FOMC yesterday pushed back on the marketâ€™s desire to lock it into a policy posture into its next meeting in two months time. Instead now it has al options open and can respond to upcoming data depending on how they comes out. The markets thus are now data-dependent. Following the ADP private employment reported yesterday, the forecasters have been shading their estimates for the April U.S. employment report due on Friday. Many now expect an April decline in jobs of about -50,000. Many overseas markets have been closed today for various the May Day observances.
- Today sees U.S. Personal income and spending data, plus the core PCE report. Weekly jobless claims and the ISM PMI are due as well.
What Prices are Saying:
Forex and Commodities:
- The USD is trading higher vs. the EUR and GBP from late Wednesday. The EUR/GBP cross has weakened.
- The carry trade funding currencies, JPY and CHF, are weaker vs. the USD. EUR/JPY has eased considerably. Swissy is weaker vs. the JPY
- The carry-trade driven currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all weaker vs. the USD. Also Gold and oil have fallen.
Equities and Bonds:
- The Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng index were closed for May Day. The Japanese Nikkei closed lower, despite the weak JPY. Japan is into the Golden Week holiday period. 10-yr JGBs closed higher.
- Many Key European bourses are on holiday. The FTSE is weaker.
- U.S. equities are seen opening higher. U.S. bond prices are weaker.
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