User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday May 1, 2008 - 13:28:25 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics - www.fxa.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - Fed Motor Car Pulls Off Easy Highway

Despite an attempt to deliver a clear signal of a pause in policy easing after 325bps of accommodation and a host of unprecedented liquidity measures, the FOMC still has a terrible hand…recession and rising price level (including, and in part fanned by, a falling dollar).  Simply all the Fed could do was flip the indicator signal and pull off the highway of easing for who knows what…potentially and end to the journey (I think unlikely), a 14-week nap (little more likely) or an 8-week rest/refuel (more likely than end to easing cycle).  Part of the Fed’s predicament is due to the very nature of the problem…the banking system is still deeply dysfunctional and normal monetary policy transmission channels through the banking system are not open.  So cutting more is pushing on a string and in terms of prices more like pushing on a spring (price transmission channels are fully open). 

 

I would also not underestimate the role the eight week break between FOMC meetings played in the Fed’s decision to wink at markets (as opposed to a nod) looking for confirmation of an end to the easing cycle…there is not as much at stake saying policy is on hold when the next planned meeting to decide rates is not until June24-25 (and I believe a Humphrey Hawkins testimony in between).  If the data continues to deteriorate, prices cool some and the Fed decides June25 to cut again, it will feel like a pause even though none has happened.  And if nothing else Wednesday’s subliminal message on rates will help check dollar downside.  That said markets priced the pause ahead of the meeting and it was not surprising to see the dollar unwind some of the recent gains after the news. 

 

My concern is that the Fed pulled off the highway to refuel and will get back on the easing highway as despite all its deficiencies, cutting Funds rate is the only road outta here and we are early in the economic pile up.  I would be far more confident of a lasting Fed pause if Washington was more involved in stabilizing the housing market and that vehicle looks like it is in need of road assistance.

 

Few words on Q1 GDP – it was a stinker.  Do not lose sight of the forest for the trees as media and econologues (Brian Westbury’s of the world where balanced economics is replaced with a dogmatic political economy agenda) seems to – as long as we do not have back-to-back quarters of contraction in GDP we are not in recession and everything is okay.  For the seven quarters (starting Q1 2006) GDP averaged 2.8% SAAR and since Q4 2007 GDP is averaging 0.6%...that is 2.2% wiped off the economy.  Anyone who does not think this is a recession needs a lobotomy.  Also all the indications from the domestic economy including business investment (on top of slower consumption, housing investment contraction of unprecedented magnitude and weak inventories) point to a serious recession.  Okay net exports are a big offset and without them GDP would have been negative in Q1.  But what is the outlook for net exports even with a weak dollar?  Well with monetary policy tightening in Europe (credit conditions if not official rates), Latin America (including Brazil) and Asia (including India and China), the export safety net is not sustainable.  Japan and Europe are showing early signs of what emerged in the US in Q4.  Get a grip Mr Westbury (Dr Pangloss) – 0.6% could easily be revised to -1.6% - margin of error is +/- 1% point.  I think it is safe to attribute more downside risk to GDP revision than upside ahead. 

 

On the dollar – I was early to call bottom in dollar, embraced lower dollar on break of 1.49 triple top and no running risk of being late to again embracing the dollar bottom.  I said in a recent email that I have 3 conditions for a dollar turn – 1/ Fed signals an end to easing (40% weight), 2/ ECB introduces two-way risk in interest rates (40% weight) and 3/ joint currency intervention (20% weight).  Where are we?  About half of condition 1/, zero on condition 2/ and 3/.  So the die is not yet cast despite the gushing from the tube and the pages of Barrons.  It is also worth noting that sterling, C$ and A$ are starting to diverge from the euro’s performance versus the dollar and these currencies were the first to turn lower in the overall dollar downtrend – for many the canaries in the coal mine in terms of the dollar.  Arguably the recent strength in the Anglo Saxon currencies against the dollar may be telling us that the dollar is correcting, not reversing its long-term trend lower which would be consistent with my current read on the 3 conditions for a trend change in the buck 

 

David Gilmore

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com


Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube



Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.


Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105