User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday May 1, 2008 - 23:24:14 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - How Will Non-Farm Payrolls Impact the US Dollar?

• Euro Hits 1 Month Low, Sell-Off Could Continue
• British Pound Shuns Economic Data

How Will Non-Farm Payrolls Impact the US Dollar?

The US dollar has strengthened across the board today ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls release.  This may befuddle some traders as the greenback’s price action conflicts with the higher jobless claims report and the deterioration in the employment component of manufacturing ISM.  According to our non-farm payrolls preview, job growth should decline for the fourth consecutive month.  The market is currently expecting non-farm payrolls to fall by 78k and for the US unemployment rate to rise to highest level in 3 years.  There is even a possibility that job losses could hit -100k.  Over the past month, consumer confidence hit a record low and planned layoffs as reported by Challenger Gray and Christmas increased 27.4 percent.  Continuing claims are also on the rise as the problems in the US economy escalate.  Many people including Warren Buffet will agree that the US economy is already in a recession.  During the last 3 recessions, there was a string of job losses that lasted for a minimum of 10 months.  If this is true, we could see far more than 4 consecutive months of job losses ahead of us.  In each of the past 3 recessions, the largest single month job loss was more than 300k.  In this context, a 100k drop in April or May is not only realistic but nearly guaranteed.  However, weak non-farm payrolls may not be enough to halt the recent rally in the US dollar.  After the hawkish minutes from the FOMC yesterday, traders have rallied the greenback on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not be raising interest rates again in June.  Even if the drop in non-farm payrolls in the month of April is greater than the -80k decline in March, the Federal Reserve has the benefit of seeing the non-farm payrolls report for the month of May before making their next monetary policy decision. Therefore the market’s reaction to a bad number may be tempered for the time being and a good number of course would add fuel to the current rally in the US dollar.  Sentiment and technicals also point to further gains for the US dollar and weakness in the Euro, which is discussed further in our Euro commentary.  Meanwhile the manufacturing ISM number was stronger than expected along with core PCE.  Although the 48.6 reading is still reflective of contractionary conditions, the performance of the manufacturing sector would have probably been worse had it not been for the benefits of a weaker dollar. 

Euro Hits 1 Month Low, Sell-Off Could Continue

The Euro hit a one month low against the US dollar today and the sell-off could continue.  At the beginning of this week, we outlined 3 reasons why the EUR/USD may continue to fall.  The first was hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, which we received.  The second was the first flip in the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index in over a year with the index now growing more net long Euros since the last report.  The FXCM SSI is a contrarian indicator which means that a rise in net long positions is actually a bearish signal for the EUR/USD. The third reasons is technicals.  Our technical analyst Jamie Saettele has been calling for a top in the EUR/USD for some time and now he expects the EUR/USD to break below 1.5342.   The sell-off could continue just because of technical and sentiment reasons, but German retail sales are also due for release tomorrow and we expect a sharp deterioration in consumer spending.  Retail PMI dropped into contractionary territory with the rate of decline similar to the 3.5 year record seen at the turn of the year.  Although the labor market has been improving, the latest employment report shows that the improvements have slowed materially. 

Visit the Euro Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.  

British Pound Shuns Economic Data

This week, economic data has had zero impact on the British pound.  Over the past few days, the currency pair managed to rally on weaker economic data and today it sold off despite a smaller drop in manufacturing PMI.  The move in the sterling is largely due to the overall strength of the US dollar although there were some positive news from the UK government this morning.  According to the bank of England’s Financial Stability Report, the worst of the global financial crisis could be over.  Prime Minster Gordon Brown also promised to cut corporate taxes to prevent UK companies from moving abroad.  At the same the BoE warned that the country’s biggest banks could see major losses as the commercial mortgage market deteriorates.  Nonetheless the UK economy is still in a vulnerable position which makes further gains unlikely. 

Visit the British Pound Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the British Pound.

Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollars Sell Off

The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars have been range trading lately. Yesterday they all recovered against the US dollar and today, they are all lower.  This is partially due to the recent volatility in commodity prices and the US dollar.  Australian economic data was mixed with manufacturing PMI increasing but building approvals plummeting.  Retail sales are due for release this evening.  We believe that consumer spending should be strong given the stability of the labor market.  There are no economic releases due from New Zealand or Canada but it is interesting to hear BoC Governor Carney say that Canada’s low food inflation is “almost unique” in the world.  This tells us that they may not hesitate to lower interest rates again because for the BoC, inflation is not a major concern.

Tell us what you think on the Canadian dollar Forum.  

Yen Crosses Slide Despite Stock Market Rally

With the exception of USD/JPY, all of the Japanese Yen crosses sold off.  The relationship between US stocks and carry trades appear to have broken thanks to stronger Japanese economic data. Both labor cash earnings and vehicle sales were increased from the prior month.  However it remains to be seen whether this strength can continue since inflation is expected to take a big toll on Japanese consumer demand.

Visit the Japanese Yen Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Yen.

Daily1_5-1
Daily2_5-1




By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

Contact Kathy Lien about this article at klien@dailyfx.com

©2008 DailyFX. All Rights Reserved.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105