Tuesday November 2, 2004 - 13:00:02 GMT
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CMC - www.cmcforex.com
Forex: Sub $50 US light crude will offer some support in event of tied election result
2nd Nov. 0600EST- The dollar appears to be holding ground ahead of today’s Presidential election, although traders remain acutely aware that any inability to declare a clean result tomorrow will likely put the greenback under a
significant level of downside pressure. The counter to this is of course
that regardless of who wins -and so long as a victor can be announced
quickly – the dollar should be in for a quick rally. How sustainable these
gains could prove to be will rely on a number of economic factors, although
if US light crude holds below $50, this would certainly offer support on
the upside. Sterling continues to range in the 1.83-1.84 bracket and is
currently sitting at the lower end of this scale. Support on the downside
is likely around yesterday’s low of 1.8290, followed by 1.8230 then 1.8190.
On the topside, look for resistance at 1.8350, 1.8410-15 then 1.8450. The
Euro has however seen some selling in early trade, largely on the back of
worse then expected German retail sales. The market was expecting little
change over September’s figures, but data released today has shown a fall
of 0.4%, once again suggesting that rate hikes by the ECB may be some way
off. As a result, EUR USD has dipped towards the 1.27 level and initial
support on the downside should come in at 1.2680. Below this, look for
further support around last week’s low of 1.2630-40 then 1.2550. On the
topside, resistance is to be expected around 1.2750-55, then the recent
high of 1.2830-40 with any move past here having the potential to retest
the February highs around 1.29.
Provided by CMC Group New York– Chris Callander, Senior FX Dealer and Enis Mehmet, Head of Operations New York. For up to the moment FX market commentary, a 24 hotline is in place on 866-531-2604.
About CMC Group
CMC Group transacts over $1billion per day across its range of real-time online Foreign Exchange. It is one of the world’s leading online Foreign Exchange, Index and Equity Derivatives providers. Founded in 1989, CMC Group has operations in London, New York and Sydney. It is a member of the US NFA and ASIC in Australia. For further details on CMC Group visit www.cmcgroupplc.com.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information is provided as opinion and may prove to be inaccurate. CMC will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained herein. CMC Group do not provide investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a professional advisor is recommended.
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