User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday November 2, 2004 - 21:26:42 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Dollar On Election Watch

DailyFX Forex Fundamentals 11-02-04

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

· Dollar On Election Watch
· German Unemployment Expected To Increase By 12k
· Pound Rallies On Stronger Retail Sales


The global markets, including the US dollar is currently on election watch. We see two possible reactions in the FX markets following the election results this evening. According to the CFTC COT reports for last week, short dollar positioning has been growing for a few weeks now. This is most likely a result of traders factoring in the increased possibility of a long drawn out legal battle in the courts following tonight’s election results. Euro longs on the IMM rose to a 2-½ year high as of Oct 26, which is clear evidence that the big players in the market are very long. Therefore if there is an undisputed winner tonight, we expect an immediate relief rally in the dollar, which means a EURUSD sell off. Liquidity is exceptionally thin during Tokyo trading hours, which is when the results will be delivered. This means that we could very well see stop-hunting on the interbank market, resulting in wild swings. If there is no clear winner, then we could see a continuation of the dollar sell-off. Ultimately, a long drawn out legal battle only means one thing, which is uncertainty. Whenever there is uncertainty, especially when it is related to the US, the dollar suffers, while safe haven assets such as gold and the Swiss franc benefit. Meanwhile German retail sales fell –0.4% in September, highlighting the weakness of domestic demand. According to Reuters, the unemployment number leaked once again. German unemployment is expected to increase by 12,000 in October.


The dollar strengthened modestly as the ranges hold in both the EURUSD and USDCHF. The market’s primary focus today is without doubt on the US Presidential elections (see EURUSD commentary). However, we want to draw our readers’ attention away from the election for a second and look ahead to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Yesterday, we talked about how the employment components of the Philly Fed, ISM and Empire State manufacturing surveys pulled back. Today, in contrast we saw the release of the Challenger report of layoffs. According to group, layoffs in US corporations were down 5.6% mom and 40% yoy in October. This is slightly comforting even though we continue to hear about layoffs from big name companies such as AOL, who announced just today that it plans to cut 3.5% of its workforce. Meanwhile weekly Redbook retail sales fell –0.6% in the last week of October. This is the fourth consecutive week of negative retail sales, which certainly is not good news for October’s retail sales report, which is expected out next week.


The British pound retraces the prior’s day’s losses on quiet trading ahead of the US Election results. A better than expected CBI retail sales survey helped to boost sterling strength as it highlights the continually healthy appetite of UK consumers. The index surged to +11, from –9 in September. As we have previously mentioned, despite high oil prices increasing costs and falling property valuations eroding household wealth, consumers continue to spend. Part of this strength was a result of aggressive discounting in stores, but we believe that the tightness of the labor market has also helped to keep demand afloat. In contrast, the CIPS construction PMI survey declined from 56.8 to 55.0. Activity remains in expansionary territory but the latest data indicates gradual slowing in the sector. However, for the time being, pound traders are best off if they keep their eyes peeled on the developments in the US, as the dollar should be main driver of currency movements over the next 24 hours.


Yesterday’s rally was relatively short-lived in USDJPY. Although some can attribute today’s price action to a delayed reaction to the fallback in oil prices, all we can make note of is cautious trading in USDJPY ahead of the US election results. Tokyo will see the bulk of FX movements given that the results will be announced by midnight EST. The relatively thinner trading during Tokyo hours should exacerbate volatility in the markets. Most pairs including USDJPY have been in consolidating for the past few days, waiting to react off of the election results and US non-farm payrolls on Friday. Should the dollar face any negative shocks, we could easily USDJPY breach the 105 handle. If this is the case, we expect aggressive jawboning by Japanese government officials. As for physical intervention, back in late March, the Ministry of Finance stood on the sidelines as USDJPY dipped into the 103 level. This indicates that since the beginning of this fiscal year, the MoF has felt less compelled to tap into physical intervention as readily as they did throughout 2003. Whether they are still patient remains to be seen, but increased volatility and more interesting price action is definitely in store for USDJPY given the event risks over the next week (Elections, Non-Farm Payrolls, FOMC).


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105