Wednesday November 3, 2004 - 01:00:56 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 3rd November 2004 Price: ... 1.2715
Resistance: 1.2765 ... 1.2785 ... 1.2815 ... 1.2840
Support....: 1.2705 ... 1.2680 ... 1.2662 ... 1.2630
Initially look for gains to 1.2785-1.2815 and later to break above 1.2841
Price recovered well from just below our 1.2670 support. We now look for gains to extend higher to 1.2785-1.2815 from where we would expect a pullback that should remain above the 1.2700-05 area and then allow the underlying uptrend to resume. Break of 1.2815 will confirm and should easily see a break above 1.2841 which should then take price to the favored target in the 1.2927-62 area. We feel this has a good chance of holding - breach would allow gains to extend to 1.3100.
The wave structure we have been working with is holding together well but does not provide us with much downside opportunities. An initial test of 1.2785 should be sold with stops above 1.2820 and taking profits at 1.2720. Only below 1.2700 would concern and suggest potential for a second test at 1.2630.
Elliott Wave Comments:
November 1st 2004
We had fully expected after the 1.2630 corrective low which we had labeled Wave (iv) as providing a base for a rally in Wave (v). However, we have looked at the price development since and we see a Wave (c) target (of a three-wave move) at 1.2845. Thus we are slightly cautious and in fact marginally favor this Wave (iv) developing in a more complex correction, possibly a flat, especially considering Wave (ii) was so brief. This would imply further 1.2630-1.2850 ranging ahead of a move to the 1.2927-62 minimum target.
November 3rd 2004
The wave structure has been developing well within the triangle structure and the reversal from 1.2662 now suggests a move higher to 1.2785-1.2815 in Wave d before a Wave e that should remain above 1.2700 to complete Wave (iv) and allow Wave (v) to commence. We are looking at the possibility of a Flat Correction from this years 1.2927 peak which would imply a topat 1.2927-62 - the latter level provided by a Wave -c- target being Wave -a- x 1.618.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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