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Wednesday November 3, 2004 - 14:21:27 GMT

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GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary Wednesday, November 03, 2004

GFT Daily Commentary by Cornelius Luca, currencies analyst, Global Forex Trading (source:

The dollar advanced during the first half of the day on Tuesday versus all majors but the pound, before sinking in late afternoon trading. The initial strength was underpinned by relatively weakening oil prices, while the decline accelerated as hopes mounted for a Kerry win in the US Presidential election. The pound had been sustained throughout the day by a stronger than expect retail sales report. The weak dollar closing suggests further gains on Wednesday.


Euro/dollar saw the expected decline on Tuesday and fell to its lowest levels seen since Thursday before reversing losses in late trading. The recovery neutralized the potential double top formation in the making.

Initial resistance remains at 1.2790. If this upmove accelerates, then look for a test of the 1.2840 peak. A break above this level would mean that the euro/dollar would advance toward the resistance between 1.2900 and 1.2926.

Immediate support comes at 1.2685 and a break below this level would signal a retest of the 1.2630 low. However, it would take a close below 1.2630 to trigger the double top formation mentioned above.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


Dollar/yen saw the expected recovery only in very early trading on Tuesday but it then peaked at 106.74 and plowed lower in late trading.

Immediate support comes at 6 1/2-month low of 105.74. Key support remains from the 50-point pivot at 105.60, which targets 105.10 and 106.10.

If the pair can recover above the 106.40 area, then look for another test of the key to 50-point pivot at 106.75, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. There is an intermediate resistance at 107.14.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish


Sterling/dollar continues to be the exception among the European currencies. The pair avoided much weakness on Tuesday with help from a stronger than forecast UK retail sales report and it then barged further in late trading. This behavior kept euro/sterling under selling pressure, as expected.

The pound managed to break above both 1.8370 and 1.8410 levels. This strength now suggests a rally to the tough resistance area between 1.8450 and the pivotal peak of 1.8464. Further resistance comes at 1.8560 and distant resistance looms at 1,8770.

Immediate support comes between 1.8370 and 1.8360. A move below this area is unlikely, but if it occurs, then look for a test of 1.8300. The pair would then face good support at 1.8280 on a closing basis. Distant support remains at 1.8192.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss managed to extend its powerful recovery from Monday only in early trading on Tuesday and peaked at 1.2114. It then fell in late trading and this weakness raises a huge question market on its ability to form a double bottom.

Provided that this weakness persists, dollar/Swiss will test the good support between 1.1970 and 1.1950. Once again, a break below this area would signal a slide to the eight-year low of 1.1908. Further support then comes at 1.1874. Distant support remains at 1.1757.

If it manages to resume its recovery, dollar/Swiss franc will retest the resistance between 1.2090 and 1.2115. A break above this area would signal a further rally to 1.2200. Distant resistance then comes at 1.2190.

Oscillators are edging lower.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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